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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 20 June 13
CAPESIZE : FINALLY A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN RATES! - FEARNLEYS A.S
Handy
Atlantic market kept a steady curve from last week. US Gulf positions fetched tick above USD 21k for Cont/Skaw direction, and vessels fixed f ...
Wednesday, 19 June 13
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.05 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 17 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,606,071 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 17 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Sunday, 16 June 13
WEAK DEMAND KEEPS COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 2.94 percent week on week but gained 0.06 percent ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
S7 AND S8 ROUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week freight movement was fairly firm with news of China is rebuilding iron ore stockpiles, and ease import rules. Cape and Pana ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO AND A HALF YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for two and a half years in the three months ended May 2013, accordin ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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