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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 09 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 27.53% ON WEEK TO 2.97 MILLION MT
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports up 27.53% to 2.97 million tons W-o-W.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,974,715 tons of coal for the ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
CAPESIZE: SHOT UP; PANAMAXES: NOT SO LUCK; SUPRAS: SLIGHTLY BETTER; HANDIES: SOFT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : June 2013 Recap
A renewed Capesize market this month (June 2013) was the cause for much of the overall noteworthy performanc ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
THE 11TH DEEP COAL PROCESSING FORUM 2013
Press Release : The 11th Deep Coal Processing Forum 2013 will be held in November Beijing China.
CDMC Events is pleased to announce that 11 ...
Monday, 08 July 13
ECO-FRIENDLY COAL FOR CHINA - VALUE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND VALUE FOR THE POWER GENERATOR - BY: LINDSAY JUNIPER
COALspot.com : January 2013 saw an episode of extreme particulate pollution in Beijing 35 times worse than the safe level recommended by the World H ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT TO STABLE NEXT WEEK- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market softened for the week ended 5 July 2013, and experienced a decline in all sectors, including BDI. Bulk dry Index d ...
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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