We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
Saturday, 12 October 13
PANAMAX: OWNERS ARE AT US$ 17-18.5K PER DAY; CHARTERERS ARE AT US$ 15.5-16K - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The futures market was heavily down on the cape size vessels and the physical average charterer rates on cape size vessels dropped by ...
Friday, 11 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATE POSITIVE MOMENTUM TO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGHER DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO released its latest short term research on the shipping markets, estimating that the elevated level of Capesize TC average rates i ...
Friday, 11 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7.70% IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 17.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
NPC AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 2.99 MILLION TONS OF COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.04 per cent week on week to 2.99 million mt for ...
|
|
|
Showing 4071 to 4075 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
|
| |
| |
|
