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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 29 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.29 PER CENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.29 per cent week on week to 3.61 million mt for ...
Monday, 28 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL FOR Q3'14 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D,W-W & M-M
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.22 percept M-M on Friday 25 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Monday, 28 October 13
COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D, W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.46 percept month on month on Friday 25 October 2 ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA STAY FIRM - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market showed tendency of softness with Cape and Panamax futures and physical soft.
The BDI was down by 12 pct week end ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RETREATING, BUT NEW BUILDING ORDERS KEEP ON PILING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market kept on retreating this week, with the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling to 1,708 points, down 78 on the ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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