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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 17 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET ENDS DECLINE, BOUNCES BACK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
It's been a rough start to the New Year for the dry bulk market, which was supposed to be on the verge of rallying to new heights this year, on the ...
Friday, 17 January 14
SPOT COAL PRICE TRENDS IN US VARY ACROSS KEY BASINS DURING 2013, SAYS EIA
COALspot.com: Spot steam coal price trends in US varied across key basins in 2013, a latest EIA report says. Compared with 2012, while total coal de ...
Thursday, 16 January 14
PANAMAX : THE GAP BETWEEN SPOT AND PERIOD HAS INCREASED IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic we have seen rates slowly sliding on lack of enough fresh business. USG/Continent still paying excess 28k and seems on an upw ...
Thursday, 16 January 14
SHIP OWNERS SCRAP 1,119 SHIPS DURING 2013 ON THE BACK OF OVERSUPPLY ISSUES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Scrapping of older vessels is still the best bet that ship owners can make, in order to improve their newer vessels' fortunes, amid an oversupply o ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER CO INVITES BIDS FOR 360K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR ITS BORYEONG PLANT
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International open bidding for 360,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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