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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 27 January 14
Q3 2014 SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST GROUND, ENDS AT $60 PMT
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 2.29% pmt month on month on Friday 24 January 2014. Th ...
Sunday, 26 January 14
FREIGHT RATES FALL FURTHER ON LACK OF CARGOES - SOLYM CARRIERS
COALspot.com: The freight market has continued to soften further this week with BDI down by 12.31 pct. BDI was closed at 1,246 points week ended 24 ...
Friday, 24 January 14
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 3.9% ON WEEK IN WEEK ENDED SATURDAY - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 24 January 14
DRY BULK MARKET STRUGGLING TO FIND FIRM FOOTING IN START OF 2014 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been faltering since the start of 2014, struggling to hold its ground as low seasonal demand has hindered further growth in ...
Thursday, 23 January 14
PANAMAX : THIS WEEK THE ACTIVITY CAME DOWN DRAMATICALLY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
With the Chinese New Year approaching the activity and rate levels are sliding in both hemispheres. Rates in the Atlantic have knocked off so ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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