We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Monday, 09 June 14
INDO SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3,Q4 OF 2014 AND Q1 2015: LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 continue last week’s trend or lost on day, week and on month according to Asia ...
Monday, 09 June 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP Q3 14 DELIVERIES LOST 4.61% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 4.61 percent month on month and closed at US$ 71.62 per mt a ...
Sunday, 08 June 14
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR PANAMXES TO REMAIN VOLATILE; NO IMPROVEMENTS SEEN OVER THE WEEK
COALspot.com: Cape index increase pushes BDI index to 989 points week on week. The BDI firmed up by 5.88 pct and closed at 989 points week ended 6 ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
EVERYTHING CHANGES, AND NOTHING ABIDES - HERACLITUS
A couple of weeks ago, and while everyone was focusing on the struggling freight market, Russia and China made history by signing a three-decade lo ...
Saturday, 07 June 14
FIRST BITE AT ANTI-CORRUPTION CLAUSE - BIMCO
In recent years a number of countries have introduced anti-corruption legislation which, unfortunately, fails to recognise the practical implicatio ...
|
|
|
Showing 3666 to 3670 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
