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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 07 July 14
RBCT, THE WORLD'S SINGLE LARGEST EXPORT COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 31.91 MMT OF COAL IN H1 2014
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 31.91 million ton ...
Monday, 07 July 14
SOUTH AFRICA'S RICHARDS BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 12% LESS COAL IN JUNE COMPARED TO MAY EXPORTS
COALspot.com: South Africa's Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) the world’s single largest export coal terminal, shipped 4.91 million tons ...
Monday, 07 July 14
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAPS FOR Q3 DELIVERY CRASHES THROUGH $ 54.50
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 07 July 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops US$ 5.47 month on month on Friday, dipping under $68 a ton. The CFR South Ch ...
Sunday, 06 July 14
PANAMAX INDEX BEING THE BIGGEST GAINER THIS WEEK; UP 52.75% W-O-W
COALspot.com: This week there was some positive signs in all the sectors. The Panamax index being the biggest gainer this week after losing for sev ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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