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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 25 July 14
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP AROUND 3.5% WEEK ENDED JULY 19
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.00 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIA'S JUNE 2014 COAL EXPORT VOLUME DOWN 6.82%; AVERAGE SELLING PRICE DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producer and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.70* ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
HANDY: SOUTH AFRICA SOFTENED A BIT, HERE RATES ARE AT AROUND 8K +150K BB FOR TRIPS EAST - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The handy market in the Atlantic is going sideways and a tick down on low activity. Levels hoovering around USD 5k on Supras. The SMX marke ...
Thursday, 24 July 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTERS ARE REQUIRED TO OBTAIN ET-BATUBARA UNDER LATEST TRADE MINISTRY'S NEW REGULATION
COALspot.com: Indonesia's trade ministry has issued regulation No. 39/M-DAG/PER/7/2014 which is requires exporters of power plant coal as ...
Wednesday, 23 July 14
PANAMAXES WERE BACK ON A DOWNWARD COURSE; CAPES WERE FEELING THE MOST PRESSURE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market was on a downward spiral this week, with the BDI noting another week-on-week decline of the magnitude of 10% this ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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