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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Friday, 08 August 14
CAPESIZE RATES ARE REMAINING MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED AT BOTTOM LOW LEVELS - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
An improving sentiment with stronger rates and fair demand for prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, both on the Continent and in the Med for the ...
Friday, 08 August 14
U.S PRODUCED 35.80 MMST OF COAL IN JULY; UP 7.89 MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.50 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 08 August 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 19.52% MORE COAL IN JULY FROM LAST MONTH
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped 14,036,947 t ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
SHORT-TERM COAL OUTLOOK IMPROVES - SAM QUEST
With demand for and supply of coal to grow in the near future, prices are expected to rebound in the short term; the long-term prospects, however, ...
Thursday, 07 August 14
BULKING UP IN AFRICA: CHINA INFLATES SEABORNE MINERALS EXPORT TRADE - RICHARD SCOTT
Africa’s profile as an exporter of dry bulk commodities is rising. Responding to growing import demand from China, India and other buyers in ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
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