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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 03 September 14
KOREA MIDLAND POWER CO. LTD INVITES BIDS FOR 1 MMT OF BITUMINOUS & SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: KOMIPO again in the market for 1 million tons of 5700 NAR and 4600 NAR coal for Jan – March 2015. South Korean state-owned util ...
Wednesday, 03 September 14
CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAP FOR JAN 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 68.30 PMT; DOWN 2.43% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in October 2014 decreased US$ 0.95 (-1.39%) day on day and US$ 1.40 (-2.03%) week on wee ...
Tuesday, 02 September 14
BERAU COAL HAS AWARDED A CONTRACT EXTENSION TO BUMA FOR 647 MLN BCM OVERBURDEN REMOVAL
COALspot.com: PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (“DOID”) has announced that its primary operating subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (&l ...
Monday, 01 September 14
GLOBALCOAL WELCOMES TWO NEW MARKET MEMBERS
COALspot.com: globalCOAL® announced today that two Market Members have joined its trading community. Both new Market Members are from the India ...
Sunday, 31 August 14
COAL FREIGHT RATES INTO INDIA FROM INDONESIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to firm this week. BDI up 5.42 percent week ended 29 August and closed at 1147 points while the Ca ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
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