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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Monday, 13 October 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 54.92, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2014 decreased US$ 0.80 (-1.46%) month over month and US$ 0.52 (-0.95%) week over ...
Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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