We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 22 October 14
CAPESIZE MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed on the red for yet another week although following Friday sentiment has started to improve on the back of ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
INDIA'S DIESEL DEREGULATION POSITIVE FOR OIL COMPANIES - FITCH
The Indian government's 18 October decision to deregulate diesel prices will have a positive effect on the national oil marketing companies tha ...
Tuesday, 21 October 14
LOW DEMAND PUTTING COAL SWAPS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost on day, week and month.
The swap has lost US$ 1.57 (-3.04%) month on month ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CHINA'S ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES DO NOT SPELL THE END FOR COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
China's environmental policies do not spell the end for coal Analysis across energy commodities show coal still accounting for 64% of power mix ...
Monday, 20 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FAILED TO PERFORM POSITIVE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 3.04 (-4.57%) month over month and US$ 1.75 (-2.68%) week o ...
|
|
|
Showing 3416 to 3420 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
|
| |
| |
|
