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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as las ...
Tuesday, 04 November 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.09 (-1.99%) month over month and increased US$ 0.31 (+0.58% ...
Monday, 03 November 14
ADARO PRODUCED 41.90MT OF COAL FOR FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2014
COALspot.com: Adaro’s coal production in the third quarter reached 14.03 Mt, a 2% increase compared to the same period of last year. Accordin ...
Monday, 03 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 2014 DELIVERY LOST 2.80% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery has decreased US$ 1.86 (-2.80%) month over month and increased US$ 0.37 ( ...
Monday, 03 November 14
INDONESIAN'S COAL EXPORTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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