We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 19 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - BY KATERINA RESTIS
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared as a worldwide health emergency by the World Health Organization and has had a great im ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
VALEMAX DEAL TO DETERMINE DRY BULK MARKET'S FATE - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Vale’s accord to sell and lease four Valemax vessels to COSCO might have negative repercussions on dry bulk freight rates. Vale has committed ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DELIVERY Q2' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 49.55; DOWN 4.10% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 66.31; UP 1.33% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has gained US$ 0.27 (+0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.87 (+1.33%) week ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well ...
|
|
|
Showing 3366 to 3370 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
|
| |
| |
|
