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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 25 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 49.55
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week.
The Q1 swap has lost US$ 0.12 (-0.24%) ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CHOPPY WATERS IN DRY BULK - SGX
COALspot.com: Dry bulk freight rates have experienced a sharp rise in volatility in recent weeks as bulk commodity supply has ramped up, said SGX i ...
Monday, 24 November 14
Q1 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.73
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery closed at US$ 52.73 on 21 November after losing US$ 0.40 (-0.75%) month ove ...
Monday, 24 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: Q2' 15 COAL SWAPS CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q1' 15 SWAPS
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 0.63 (-0.99%) month over month and US$ 0.12 (-0.19%) da ...
Sunday, 23 November 14
SPOT FREIGHT RATES IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER PREVIOUS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was up 5.41 pct week on week and closed at 1,324 points on Friday. All the segments were up this week except Panamax index.&n ...
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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