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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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