We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
|
|
|
Showing 3226 to 3230 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
|
| |
| |
|
