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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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