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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Wednesday, 11 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DROP $ 3.65 - 4.0/T W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has fell US$ ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED OFF ON THE GREEN FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off on the green for a second week in a row, while the performance of Capesizes hindered a more substantia ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
MARKET INSIGHT : NEWBUILDINGS - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
From a cost-based, buy-low perspective, there is currently a buying opportunity in the second-hand dry bulk market. I am an anti-cyclical (buy-low) ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
DRY BULK MARKET: ALL IS NOT LOST FOR A RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The low cost of commodities across the board could trigger an increase of trade among many countries, which in turn could lead to a recovery of the ...
Wednesday, 11 March 15
U.S. ELECTRIC GENERATING COMPANIES TO ADD MORE THAN 20 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IN 2015; 16 GW OF GENERATING CAPACITY IS EXPECTED TO RETIRE IN 2015
COALspot.com: In 2015, electric generating companies in U.S. expect to add more than 20 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale generating capacity to the ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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