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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 09 August 11
DRY BULK MARKET UNABLE TO FIND UPWARD MOMENTUM, SLUMPS AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
They same that what goes up must come down and nobody seems to have found a better application of this expression, than the beleguered dry bulk mark ...
Monday, 08 August 11
OIL PRICES ARE SOFTENING, WILL IT INFLUENCE COAL PRICES?
COALspot.com - The current global economic condition is in volatility after a little chance of optimism for economic recovery.
Oil price at ...
Monday, 08 August 11
A SUPRAMAX VESSEL WAS REPORTED FIXED AT $ 12K - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI was slightly up by about 4 points closed at 1268 points which was supported by cape index which was up 3.14 pct and closed at ...
Saturday, 06 August 11
NTPC IS CONSIDERING TO ENTER INTO 25 YEARS COAL PURCHASE AGREEMENT
Indian, State-run power producer NTPC's present annual consumption is 164 million tonnes, and company is considering long-term agreements abroad to ...
Friday, 05 August 11
RIO TINTO SIGNS MOU WITH JINDAL STEEL AND POWER ON ADVANCING HISMELT TECHNOLOGY
Press Release - Rio Tinto has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL) to take the next step in g ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Planning Commission, India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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