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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 15 September 11
BOTSWANA COAL AND ENERGY CONFERENCE 2011
Press Release - Botswana Coal and Energy Conference 2011 | 29-30 November 2011 | Gaborone. Botswana represents Africa’s exciting new coal and ...
Thursday, 15 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGING FURTHER UP THE SCALE, CLOSING IN ON 2,000 POINTS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market was up once again yesterday, reaching 1,927 points, or 1.375 higher on the day. Thus, it has kept its rising trend established d ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
INDO STRAITS BAGS 2.4 MILLION TON COAL TRANSPORTATION CONTRACT FROM ARUTMIN
COALspot.com - PT Indo Straits Tbk (PTIS) bagged a contract to tranship about 2.40 million tons of coal over an initial period of 6 months fro ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
DUTA PERTIWI DISCOVERS COAL RESERVE - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Duta Pertiwi Nusantara Tbk (DPNS) yesterday steeply jumped 24.56% to Rp710 a share after the company discove ...
Wednesday, 14 September 11
GOVT SETS SEPTEMBER COAL REFERENCE PRICE AT $116.26 PER TON
COALspot.com - Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia has set the September 2011 coal reference price at US$ 116.26 per ton slightly ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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