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Monday, 09 January 12
2012: WHAT WILL IT BRING FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 A further increase in dry bulk demand could be the remedy for most of the industry's oversupply issues, together of course with the high level of scrapping activity, as observed during the course of 2011. According to the latest BIMCO report on 2012, a large part of this increase in demand could come from India and its coal needs. The report said that "the year 2011 had barely started before a series of unforeseen events took place across the globe. Most of them affected dry bulk shipping negatively and the large Capesize vessels were particularly under pressure. Amongst the events were the flooding in Australia and South Africa, the triple disaster in Japan and the “Arab Spring” that also affected the supply of oil into Europe.
Half a year down the road, during which many Capesize vessels had earned less than any other dry bulk vessel size, the unexpected happened again. Strong demand for iron ore and coal from China and the recovering Japan, sourced from Brazil and Australia, ignited freight rates for Capesize vessels. A tight tonnage situation in the Atlantic basin combined with increased congestion in loading and discharging ports pushed average rates above USD 30,000 per day.
A far cry from the peaks of the super cycle, but surely an indication of the peak levels we have in sight for the near- to mid-term future as the supply side remains a considerable burden for the industry. The demand side is set to be relatively stable in 2012 although it’s likely to grow somewhat slower than in 2011 – at least in volume terms. Overall iron ore demand is likely to slow. Still, a lower world market price as compared to the domestic costs of mining it within China holds the key to provide positive demand shocks for this valuable steel ingredient. Growing demand for thermal coal from large Asian consumers is said to be a steady demand driver" said BIMCO.
In a separate research report on the outlook of the dry bulk industry, DVB Bank said that the current dry bulk fleet now stands at 8,877 vessels (585.1mio dwt). The average age of the fleet is about 12 years and 59.1% of the fleet is less than 10 years of age. In addition, the average age of vessels less than 10 years old is merely 2.8 years – a very young fleet. Similarly, the orderbook stands at 2,371 vessels (196.3mio dwt) which equates to 33.6% of the current fleet. In dwt terms, large Capes constitute the largest portion of the current fleet while Panamax size vessels have the largest Orderbook. ULBC size range is expanding substantially. So far, three of the 34 Vale ULBCs of 400K+ dwt have delivered.DVB Bank said in its analysis that if the remaining 31 vessels actually deliver, this will have a huge negative impact on all large Cape asset values as well as T/C rates and impact earnings of other Sub-Sectors as well.
Looking at deliveries, a total of 366 vessels of 28.3 million dwt are still headed towards delivery, according to figures up to November of 2011. These vessels represent 14.4% of the orderbook. Given that for the most part these weren't expected to be delivered within 2011, the researcher said that they will be rolled over to 2012. So, it draws the conclusion that "even Even with 40% delays due to slippage, postponement and cancellation, we are poised to cross the 100mio dwt mark this year. In 2012, some 1,431 vessels (121.6mio dwt) are scheduled for delivery, which is about 62% of the current orderbook" said DVB Bank.
In total the dry bulk cargo demand is forecast to rise to approximatly 3.7 billion tons this year. But, as DVB states, the level of the orderbook is too much for it to be absorbed without problems and downward pressure both on ship values and freight rates. "Although scrapping picked up in 2011 to 21.4mio dwt (334 vessels) as of November, this figure is merely 3.5% of the existing fleet" said DVB Bank. It concluded that the vessels which were ordered at the peak of the market back in 2007-2008 should add to distressed asset sales, as their owners won't be able to repay them without huge losses. In essence, the researcher said that the current slowdown will see many ship owners out of the market and bankrupt, due to cash flow problems, as at the moment, they don't have the necessary cash reserves to survive the downturn, like they did back in 2008.
BIMCO's advice towards dry bulk ship owners they should expect the unexpected, as has been the lesson learned. "Maybe even India will begin to influence the market as a significant importer. This would fulfil the prophecy and release a vast potential that has been simmering for a very long time and provide a much-needed second major demand driver. Supplementing China as the dominant factor in the market would create a more sustainable freight market going forward. However, this will not happen in just one year; moreover it appears destined to remain a long and dusty road for several years to come. An optimist would surely name India as the best thing that could happen to the dry bulk shipping industry. In the meantime volatile iron ore exports and strong demand for thermal coal is likely to characterise India’s contribution to the dry bulk markets" concluded the organization.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 04 October 11
INDONESIA RAISES COAL BENCHMARK (HBA) FOR FIRST TIME IN 4 MONTHS
COALspot.com - Indonesia raised the monthly reference price for sales in October by 2.56 percent, the first increase since June.
The Ministry of ...
Tuesday, 04 October 11
COAL MINING GROUP WANTS EXPORT TAX, NOT EXCISE - JG
One of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, The Jakarta Globe reported that, the government shall reimpose a duty on coal exports, classifyi ...
Sunday, 02 October 11
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS PICKED UP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI dropped by 1 pct and Cape index dropped by 6 pct closing at 1,899 points and 3,136 points respectively. However all other seg ...
Saturday, 01 October 11
2012 TO BE ANOTHER CHALLENGING YEAR - CEO, REMI MARITIME
Shipowners are facing another challenging year in 2012 said Mr. Leonidas Polemis CEO of Remi Maritime Corporation, urging caution towards operating ...
Friday, 30 September 11
MINING BILL CLEARED, FIRMS TO SHARE 26% PROFITS WITH LOCALS - NDTV
NDTV reported that, The Union Cabinet cleared the draft mining bill aimed at regulating mining activities Friday. The bill proposes a profit-sharing ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
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