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Tuesday, 03 January 12
WHICH WAY WILL THE DRY BULK MARKET HEAD ON FIRST WEEK OF THE YEAR? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 Dry bulk ship owners will be wondering which way will the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark, will head during the first days of the new year, since it ended on a downward spiral back in late December, ahead of the Christmas Holidays. In any case, 2011 proved to be an interesting, yet quite challenging year for dry bulk owners, who will be turning their heads towards the new year with much anticipation, as to what effect will China manage to exert on demand of dry bulk goods.
According to a recent BIMCO analysis on the dry bulk market, “despite the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase” said the analysis.
It went on to mention that “in order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant.
To sum up, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back. Meanwhile, we reiterate our forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval” concluded BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst, Peter Sand.
Meanwhile, in separate report on the course of second hand sales and newbuilding orders during the final week of the year, Lion Shipbrokers said that “on the dry-bulk front, an even quieter week with very few sales to report; Vintage handysize bulker HUI SHENG (37K BLT 1984/BRAZIL TRADING AS GEARLESS) has changed hands within China for $4.8 mill while gearless ice class 1A box single-decker LONE BRES (4.7K BLT 2000/HOLLAND) went to Norwegian Buyers for $2.85 mill basis annual & intermediate surveys freshly passed. In the Tanker segment, in addition to last week's report, Greek controlled suezmax duo EQUATOR & NAVIGATOR (150K BLT 2006 UNIVERSAL/JAPAN) have been committed en bloc for $44 mill each basis delivery January 2012 to clients of Principal Maritime of U.S.A. Two ex-Dr Peters controlled aframax/LR2 tankers were sold at auction. DS PERFORMER & DS POWER (109K BLT 1999/2000 DALIAN/CHINA) were sold for $15 mill each in auctions in Aruba & Rotterdam respectively, hearing both were bought by the Mortgagee bank, while others suggest by clients of Clearwater. Stainless steel chemical tanker ORIENTAL WISTERIA (12.5K BLT 2001/JAPAN) is reported committed to Chinese Buyers for $10.7 million” said Lion.
On the demolition market, it mentioned that “the news that Bangladesh will most probably re-open around 12th to 14th of January have put smiles upon Shipowners' faces, hoping that competition will push demo-rates above $500 levels. Most notable sale this week is container vessel BUXMASTER (LDT 6.837T, 23K BLT 1986/GERMANY) committed for the bullish price of $508 to India without having any extra features like extra bunkers/propeller or tailshaft to justify this level. The subcontinent's sentiment is positive and prices are ranging at $450 for Bulkers, $475 for tankers & $475 for Container/Tweendeckers. In other major demo-markets, China has improved paying $430 per lt, while Turkey is stable paying $330-335 per lt” concluded Lion Shipbroker.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 17 December 11
THE FREIGHT MARKET SEEMS TO HAVE ALMOST BOTTOMED OUT AND MAY REMAIN STEADY AT THESE LEVELS CAPT REDDY
COALspot.com - The BDI and Cape index closed lower this week with BDI closing at 1,888 points (down by 1.76 pct) and Cape index at 3,572 points (dow ...
Friday, 16 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOSES TRACK ON CAPESIZE LOSSES, SHIP FINANCING REMAINS TROUBLESOME - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market didn’t manage to sustain earlier gains, losing track yesterday, on reduced Capesize demand and persisting troubles in smal ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
BERAU SEES INDIA AS POTENTIAL MARKET FOR LOW-CALORIE COAL - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, Publicly listed coal mining company PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), the fifth largest coal producer in Indonesia, sees ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
PANAMAX HARDLY AFFECTED BY THE RECENT FIRMER TENDENCY FOR THE BIG SISTERS - FEARNBULK
Handy
The rates are more or less the same as last week. Continent/US Gulf fixing at tick below USD 10k and Gulf/Continent levels at USD 25k. Trips ...
Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply w ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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