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Thursday, 15 December 11
DRY BULK RATES TO REMAIN AT CURRENT LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART IN THE COMING MONTHS SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 In its latest research note, BIMCO said that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back.
Meanwhile, it reiterated its forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.According to BIMCO’s analysis “despite the the supply-side pressure, we put our money on black and forecast that Capesize rates are going to be supported by lower iron ore prices and coal demand for Winter heating in the coming months, thus we expect freight rates to stay sensitive to iron ore price developments but above USD 20,000 per day. A key observation from BIMCO is that we believe mining companies will prefer to sell this important steel production ingredient in larger volumes rather than higher prices, as long as China appears ready to purchase.
In order to deliver the support needed to keep rates elevated, Chinese iron ore imports will need a level of 61.2 million tonnes in both November and December, which in turn will bring the annual total import growth to +10% y-o-y. The supporting argument that must trump the negative impact from high stockpiles and slower steel production is the pricing game. China has built a firm reputation for playing the commodity markets well.
Looking beyond the Capesize fleet and into 2012, the smaller-in-size segments are going to experience a healthy slowdown in new deliveries. Right now, deliveries are estimated at 80 million DWT – equal to a fleet growth of 11.4%; a number that is likely to get slightly inflated by vessels that were set for December delivery but end up being January deliveries instead. A potential upside may also come from Russia, if they decide to impose a ban on grain exports to stop excessive outflow of the foodstuff. This will lead to longer hauls, as African and Middle Eastern importers will have to look for alternative sources potentially further away. Should they go to the most likely exporters, Australia or Argentina, the impact on the freight markets will be most significant” said BIMCO.
On the supply side, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that the active fleet has grown by 12.9% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 1,050 new vessels equal to 86 million DWT, offset by 20.9 million DWT being demolished. “We expect total demolition in 2011 to end at 23.5 million DWT as the activity is slowing down. Total inflow of tonnage in 2011 is going to hit 100 million DWT, surpassing 2010 inflow of new tonnage by as much as 20%. The fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, which is the highest level ever in net and gross terms.
By early December, 230 new Capesize vessels (+170,000 DWT) were delivered. That’s more than one new vessel every second day throughout the year. In total, BIMCO expects 245 new Capesizes will have been delivered in 2011 before New Year’s Eve. The projections for next year anticipates delivery of another 220 new Capesizes. Strong inflow of new tonnage and high amounts of recycled tonnage have brought the average age of the Capesize fleet down to 11.5 years from 13 at the start of the year. The level of new contracts dropped month by month as the year passed by. From close to 5 million DWT contracted in January, only 0.8 million DWT was contracted in October. This is a 29-months’ low level – an extremely positive development that bodes well for this segment of the industry, especially when seen in the perspective of the rise in freight rates during the past few months and owners not queuing up to place new orders” said Sand.
Just two months ago BIMCO released an analysis entitled: “Record recycling activity stirs optimism in dry bulk”. By that time, the potential of reaching 25 million DWT was within reach if high demolition rates were kept attractive to owners and rates did not improve significantly. Today, the “bull run” towards the recycling yards is over, demolition rates have come down in the Far East and Bangladesh has stopped taking in more new business. Meanwhile, average freight rates have stayed more or less unchanged, near year-high levels, making demolition activity cool down significantly.
On the demand side, BIMCO said that “while the workhorses in the Panamax and Supramax segments performed in line with the BIMCO forecast – hovering around USD 15,000 per day – Handysize vessels performed slightly worse than expected, tipping their toes just South of the USD 10,000 per day. On the very positive side, Capesize rates tackled the dip at end-October to see rates soaring again in November. The development is driven purely by vessels chartered to haul iron ore to China. Coming down from 28 chartered ships a week by mid-October, weekly activity dropped to 11 per week by the end of October, due to falling steel prices. However, activity rebounded strongly throughout November as iron ore prices fell rather significantly too to offset the negative impact from falling steel prices, according to Commodore Research. This development is mirrored perfectly in average time charter rates.
Export prospects for Russian wheat are still strong and building. This is evident from recent very strong sales following solid demand for vast volumes and competitively priced wheat, despite appreciation of the Rouble against other currencies. However, there are concerns arising in the wake of the success that Russia will impose grain export restrictions should total grain exports reach 24 million tons. In an attempt to export before restrictions are imposed, traders and producers are shipping a lot of output to ports, creating railway jams. Ironically, these jams lowered the pace of exports in October.
The Panamax and Supramax rates in the Atlantic basin have found only little support in the wheat and grains coming into the market via the US Gulf. Rates have come off over the past months, but should firm slowly as demand for thermal coal picks up as we head into the Winter in the northern hemisphere.
Overall demand in 2011 is likely to end at 6% y-o-y, while demand growth in 2012 is looking a bit softer at 4% y-o-y” concluded BIMCO.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 29 December 11
NEW VESSELS DELIVERED ARE FLOODING THE OCEANS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected 2011 has been the year that newbuilding deliveries peaked and kept "flooding" the market, thus supressing freight rates and er ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
MINERS MAKE CASE FOR RESUMING CONTRACT NEGOTIATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, problems with the renegotiation of mining contracts in the country are far from over, as agreements on several cruci ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
COAL SHIPMENT OF TIANJIN PORT REACHED 6.72 MLN TONNES IN NOVEMBER - STEEL HOME / HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tianjin port shipped 6.72 million tonnes of coal in November, decreasing 600,000 tonnes versus 7.32 million tonnes in October, while up 21.09% or 1. ...
Tuesday, 27 December 11
NEW CLAUSE PUBLISHED FOR SLOW STEAMING - BIMCO
Many owners and operators faced with high bunker prices are considering implementing slow steaming regimes to save fuel and to assist with capacity ...
Monday, 26 December 11
NEW EXPORT TAX PLAN GREETED WITH PRAISE AND CRITICISM - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post, one of the Indonesia's leading english news paper reported that, both praise and criticism showered the government’s plan t ...
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Showing 4911 to 4915 news of total 6871 |
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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