We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 12 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET LOOKING FOR BALANCE AS WE ENTER 2012 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 During the past few months, freight rates for dry bulk carriers, especially Capesizes have increased significantly, providing ship owners with a much needed boost. Still, the oversupply haven't been solved overnight. This will take a few more years to happen, provided that newbuilding orders remain at modest levels and scrapping of older ones doesn't seize.In an interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide, BIMCO's
Chief Shipping Analyst, Peter Sand said that for the coming couple of months, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day. but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back. "Meanwhile, we reiterate our forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval" said Sand.He went to add that 2012 is likely to become as challenging as 2011. The pressure from the supply-side is set to ease a bit and drift down to around 11-12% but unfortunately the demand-side also looks set to end on the softer side of 2011.
Looking back in 2011, how would you describe this year in terms of dry bulk freight rates and the general movement of the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index)?
Following the positive surprise that the industry experienced during 2010, 2011 have been very different. The combination of several demand-side disruptions and a freak wave of new built tonnage entering the fleet, has made the BDI drop by a significant 44% y-o-y. The fact that the amount of tonnage that went to the breakers was double-up on our initial forecast helped a lot, but cannot prevent the overall fleet to grow by 14%.
The year has been full of surprises. I’ll guess only very few had foreseen the main events of 2011 before they actually happened. The “Arab spring”, the massive flooding in Australia and South Africa and the triple disaster in Japan all events that was affecting dry bulk as well as wet bulk to a large extent. The Capesize segment was mostly hurt. During the first half of year, average time charter earnings of USD 8,500 per day only just covered OPEX for most vessels, leaving nothing to pay financial costs. But after a bit of a summer lull for Capesizes, freight rates really took off in August when China resumed massive buying of iron ore at a time when tonnage was tight in Atlantic basin. Congestion in both exporting and importing ports went up and lifted rates to year-high level where they are still hovering. The fact that the freight rate today is close to USD 30,000 per day is a positive surprise too – framing a year full of surprises and ending it on a happy note.
How is the current balance between demand and supply being shapen up?
The winter market is providing some support to the markets – and when you look at rates for Panamax and Handymax at USD 15,000 per day it actually not that bad when you look at it from a historical perspective. Trouble is of course that the fleet that ploughs the seas today is purchased at relatively higher prices than ever before – requiring higher rates to break even – when taking account of financing costs on top of ordinary OPEX.
For the coming couple of months, BIMCO holds the view that the Capesize Time Charter Average will remain at USD 20,000-30,000 per day but the tonnage oversupply will eventually hit back. Meanwhile, we reiterate our forecast on the Panamax and Supramax freight rates that are likely to stay put in the USD 13,000-17,000 per day interval. Handysize rates are expected to gain traction and return to the USD 9,000-13,000 per day interval.
Despite struggling rates for the most part of the year, 2011 also saw a lot of newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers. Which factors triggered this development?
From a fundamental point of view – the amount of tonnage that has been ordered during 2011 is sustainable; if you look at 2011 in solitude. Tonnage equivalent to 4% of the active fleet is a more or less what is required to renew a fleet that has a lifetime of 25 years. Moreover it is actually the lowest level of new orders placed since 2002, surpassing even 2009 where 35.6 million DWT was ordered. However, the problem is that 2010-2013 are all years of massive inflow of new tonnage. In order to get the balance back we should have a couple of years with deliveries below the sustainable trend to let demand catch up and balance the market once again.
It seems that 2011 was a record year for demolition activity of older vessels. Would things be a lot worse, shouldn’t those vessels had been sold for scrap?
The amount of demolished tonnage during 2011 has been a much welcomed wonder. And it has certainly provided some relief to the markets, mostly in the larger segments and specifically amongst Capesizes. The pressure on these big ships in particular has been eased by this. A few numbers illustrates this very clearly. The number of Capesize scrapped during 2011 (approx. 68) is equal to the number of Capesize vessels being scrapped during the preceding ten years! In the case that no Capesizes had been recycled the segment would have grown by more than 20% - matching the level of 2009 and 2010. But the demolition activity has cut growth by some 5%.
Do you expect a similar record of demolitions in 2012 as well, or is this dependant upon market swings?
Since freight rates took off in the Capesize segment by mid-August, only few vessels have been sold for recycling. The correlation between freight rates and the amount of recycled tonnage is quite strong right now. BIMCO do not foresee the record from this year to be duplicated in 2012. Our forecast for 2012 is that 10 million DWT is going to leave the fleet by demolition. But the estimate contains a pure upside potential, if rates are facing heat to the tune of first-half of 2011.
Going forward into 2012, do you expect newbuilding deliveries to outpace demand again, or will things slow down versus 2011?
In BIMCO we foresee that 2012 is likely to become as challenging as 2011. The pressure from the supply-side is set to ease a bit and drift down to around 11-12% but unfortunately the demand-side also looks set to end on the softer side of 2011. This leave the present fundamental imbalance between supply and demand more or less all-square – but as the global economy is still in a very fragile condition that now also means that China is slowing down, most risk are probably to be found on the downside.
Which will be the average rates for dry bulk ship types in 2012, according to your view and why?
We see 2012 is likely to become another 2011 on average. As China and India is going to grow a tad slower in the coming year this is like to limit the upside risk to our scenario. The global economic situation must be resolved before demand can surprise on the upside to a large extent. The yards will probably set 80 million DWT of to sea during the year – but handling the supply side remains an internal job. Use a variety of tools from the toolbox: slow steam, postpone/delay delivery, sign only new orders to a very limited extent, focus on customers and work closely together with all your stakeholders.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 22 December 11
RI WILL NOT PLAY CATCH-UP WITH GLOBAL COAL DEMAND - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted in its Coal Market Report 2011 that over the next five years, gl ...
Thursday, 22 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING TRACTION AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept retreating in the middle of the week, as charterers seem to be looking towards the holiday season and the start of the new ye ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
THE COAL IMPORT INTO CHINA WAS QUIETER AS COAL STOCKS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS - BRS
The BDI ended the week at 1888 points (-1.8%), the BCI corrected to 3572 (-3.4%), the BPI was up at 1,775 (+3.6%), the BSI dropped to 1193 (-3.0%) a ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
INDIA IMPORTS 66.41 PERCENT MORE COAL FROM INDONESIA LAST MONTH - SOURCES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 33.476* mln mt of coal in November, which is slightly higher than its Octobe ...
Monday, 19 December 11
KOPEX COMMITS ADDITIONAL ONE MILLION DOLLAR FOR PT TRANSCOAL MINERGY
COALspot.com - Mining contractor Kopex has agreed to extend a further US$1 million to finance the remainder of the expanded drill program at PT Tran ...
|
|
|
Showing 4921 to 4925 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
|
| |
| |
|
