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Friday, 09 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET REBOUNDS ON HEALTHIER DEMAND OUTLOOK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


The dry bulk market edged forward yesterday, at the highest rate of the past couple of weeks, as a result of stonger iron ore demand, backed by lower prices. As a result, the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was up by 1.78% to 1,882 points. Capesizes were once again the strongest performers, with the relative Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) rising by 3.64% yesterday, to reach 3,529 points. Panamaxes also gained 0.36% to increase to 1,693 points. By contrast though, the smaller ship types still seem to suffer, with Handysizes falling once again, this time by almost 1% on the day, with the relative index now at just 606 points. Similarly, Supramaxes shed an additional 2.35% to end the session at 1,248 points.

In a report this week, Intermodal’s George Bassakos said that it has definitely been a bumpy road for shipping this year. The devastating floods in Australia and the lethal tsunami in Japan earlier in the year, were the worst omen but reality proved totally different. Not for all though.... Capes rebounded strongly with fronthaul rates reaching or surpassing the USD 50,000/pd mark (rates not seen again after the party of 2007/2008). Smaller sizes didn’t exactly share the same euphoria but managed to perform relatively well helping the BDI to score a near 80pct increase from February's lows (bit over 1000points) to current highs over 1800 points said Mr. Bassakos.

Raising the question of whether it will be V for Victory… or W for double dip, he mentioned that «it that the market itself reacted spontaneously to overcapacity fears and managed to auto-adjust with increased scrapping (almost 70 capes have been scrapped so far this year), lower ordering and postponed deliveries - for how long though? The demand side of the equation stood particularly well outperforming supply so far, but the headlines from Europe and the United States are not that encouraging for the years to come he said.

Regarding demolition activity during the past week, shipbroker Golden Destiny said in a report that activity remained at low levels again this week with 9 vessels reported to have been headed to the scrap yards of total deadweight of as low as 297,012 tons. In terms of the reported number of transactions, the demolition activity has been marked with a 10% week-on-week decrease and regarding the total deadweight sent for scrap there has been a 21 % decrease. In terms of scrap rates, the highest scrap rate has been achieved this week in the tanker sector again by Pakistan for a tanker of 135,915 dwt “FRONT BETA” with 23,563/ldt at $505/ldt. While Bangladesh still remains close and the future of this market will most likely be decided from the next year, India attracted 44% while China and Pakistan followed. At a similar week in 2010, demolition activity was at even lower levels, in terms of the reported number of transactions, with 4 vessels had been reported for scrap of total deadweight 65,716 tons” said the Piraeus-based shipbroker.

In turn, Intermodal said that despite the worsening conditions and considerably poor sentiment circulating the demolition market, it seems as though there was a very slight upswing in offered levels coming from Indian breakers. This seems to have only been in order to secure some high profile units from Pakistani breakers and take the lead in the market, as overall price levels look to be very week and could possibly drop further in the coming days as pressure continues to mount from the poor exchange levels, dropping commodity prices and uncertainty over the Bangladesh market. With respect to the final of these it now looks as though the date for the court hearing has been scheduled for the 14th December while the way things are going it might be further delayed and rescheduled for the new year. Offered Prices were overall stable this week, with wet tonnages holding at about 400-490$/ldt and dry units seeing levels of around 380-460$/ldt said the shipbroker.

In terms of newbuilding activity, Intermodal mentioned that «things are still holding fairly subdued while as we get closer to the holiday season we will likely see the number of enquiries drop further. Despite the heavy marketing pushed by Chinese shipbuilders on the new “eco” designs, we have not yet seen a surge in demand and it seems as though many yards will be closing the year without having reached the initial order targets for 2011 and as many have still a considerable amount of open slots for 2013 and beyond, it will be no surprise if their marketing efforts intensify within 2012. With regard to reported orders this week, Greece’s Polembros seems to be keen on exploiting the low asset values and newbuilding prices while likely holding a firm outlook on the prospects of the Capesize and VLOC market after its recent upward rally, having exercised his two options for newcastlemax (206,000dwt) bulkers this week at China’s Shanghai Waigaoqiao shipyard it concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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