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Monday, 05 December 11
DRY BULK RATES LOOKING TO EXTEND GAINS THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


Capesize dry bulk carrier owners have had a great week, with rates rising for six straight sessions (including the end of the week before that). As a result daily rates for hiring a Capesize, especially in the Pacific have risen to $27,581, a figure representing an invrease of 32% on the week, standing in a three-month high. Australia is the world’s biggest exporter of iron ore, typically carried on capesizes, and China is the top global consumer of the steelmaking raw material. Miners required more vessels than were available to ship ore from Australian ports, supporting prices worldwide and improving market sentiment, Braemar Seascope said.

In total, average Capesize freight rates climbed to $29,359, the highest level since the end of October, and up 47 percent since the start of the year. Still, fleet growth will outpace demand for commodities shipped in bulk and market sentiment will again turn negative in 2012, JPMorgan Cazenove said in a report at the end of the week, as mentioned in a Bloomberg article. Rates for single-voyage and longer-duration charters across the shipping industry are 60 percent lower than 10-year averages after owners ordered too many vessels before a 2008 collapse in rents, analysts led by London-based Christopher G. Combe said in the report. Deliveries of dry-bulk vessels will peak in 2012 based on outstanding orders for new ships, according to JPMorgan Cazenove, which initiated coverage on five maritime and offshore companies.

Hope can come in the form of demolition activity, which by the start of November was already 400% higher than in 2010 as whole, said Rodney North, Braemar Seascope Director in Demolition, in a recent interview with Hellenic Shipping News. He said that in total, 23.8 million dwt of dry bulk tonnage has been removed from the market so far in the year. Still, as he mentioned, this level of scrapping activity isn’t enough to help alleviate oversupply problems. “According to our Research Department this year will see a net bulk carrier fleet growth of 10% compared to a 6% demand growth” said Mr. North. Regarding 2012, things aren’t expected to change much according to Braemar, which anticipates a net dry bulk fleet growth of 8%-10%, as against a steady demand increase of 6%.

According to Christina Anagnostara, CFO of Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp., the record levels of scrapping activity seen this year are going to be a catalyst for alleviating the industry's oversupply problems by balancing supply and demand. “Recently an international broker estimated that if all vessels built before 1985 were scrapped before the end of 2013 it would bring net annual fleet growth to 6.3%, compared to gross growth of roughly 12% and an estimated annual rise in demand for dry bulk transportation of about 5.2%. If this materializes, we should see a gradual stabilization of the demand and supply dynamics going forward” said Miss Anagnostara. For the time being though, most industry sources point to the fact that fundamentally, supply and demand dynamics have not changed that much and so the spike in rates is likely to be transitory. "As a result we expect freight environment to remain soft for the next 18 months" she said, speaking with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.

She also added that as things currently stand, "the bulk of new vessel deliveries is going to take place in 2011 and 2012, while from 2013 the pace of expected deliveries is likely to subside considerably. Even as we expect some deliveries to be pushed back in time due to financing and other difficulties, it is unlikely that after 2013 the industry is going to be facing the problem of oversupply as intensely as it does so today. An important assumption to be made here is that orders for new dry bulk vessels are not going to increase significantly, to the extent that they did in the years leading up to 2009 as that may prove detrimental for market fundamentals in the future" she mentioned.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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