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Friday, 02 December 11
DRY BULK CARRIERS BACK IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS MARKET SPEEDS UP - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING


With the tanker and container markets suffering dearly, it seems that the tide has once again turned in favor of the dry bulk carriers, despite oversupply issues, caused by a still huge orderbook. Yesterday, the industry’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) inched higher for a third straight session, fed by the increased appetite for Capesize vessels, able to carry 150,000 tons of raw materials, like coal and iron ore. The BDI increased by an additional 0.87% to 1,862 points yesterday, with Capesizes leading the pack once again. The BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) was up by 2.67% to 3,386 points, thanks to higher appetite from Chinese charterers. By contrast, all other dry bulk ship markets were again lower on the day, with Panamaxes losing almost 1% and Supramaxes losing 0.88%.

Meanwhile, in a report this week, shipbroker Intermodal talked about an interesting development in the newbuilding market, with a new type of carrier, the so called "eco-type" handysize bulker enjoying plenty of attention lately. According to Intermodal’s Panos Tsilingiris, this shouldn’t be taken as a surprise, as there are a few factors which substantiate such investments, like the fact of an aged Handysize fleet, with approximately 36.6% of the fleet being more than 25 years old. Also, this carrier offers "significant slippage/cancellation figures because handies were generally contracted to less reputable yards" said Intermodal, also noting handies’ limited historical downside risk, the speculation on the robust growth of certain emerging markets (notably Africa); the continuing softening in newbuilding prices given the increased competition among -mostly Chinese- yards; and the emergence of eco handy BC designs, which has rejuvenated shipowners’ interest in the segment.

According to Intermodal, "regarding the last factor, half a dozen of different eco-type designs have already been contracted in Chinese shipyards. Specifically, only 32 out of an outstanding 237 handy newbuildings in China, are effective eco handy NB contracts. Other designs are offered in Japanese, Korean and Vietnamese yards with the Chinese, however, entertaining shy half of the current total handy orderbook. While the different eco designs share some common attributes e.g., same main engine, double-skin versions (certain designs also offer single skin versions), etc., they also exhibit distinctive characteristics (e.g., draft, size of hatch-openings, etc), while certain tailor-made variations are offered (e.g., log-fitted, ice-class, mechanical ventilation, open-hatch/topside, etc). Still, the “holy grail" is fuel oil consumption with promised figures ranging from the very high-teens to low-mid 20s tons/day” said Intermodal.

Mr. Tsilingiris also notes that "interestingly, some buyers prefer designs in the region of 35-37.5kdwt, while others seek dwt maximization. For that purpose we have here broken down handies xs30kdwt into three size groups. Relevantly, the orderbook-to-fleet ratios in the 32.5-37kdwt (Group2) and xs37-shy43kdwt (Group3) segments are 47.84% and 32.35%, respectively, while in the 30-32.5kdwt (Group1) just 20.7%. As one can read in the table, the demographics favor the segment with the highest dwt, where the >25yo fleet in Group3 is xs56% (while in Groups 1 and 2 the respective figures are around 25%); however, the larger sizes may run aground on chartering competition from smaller handymaxes" he said.

Finally, recapping, Intermodal said that "there is recently plenty of interest from owners as well as competition from yards and design houses on handy bulk carrier newbuildings. With their significantly improved consumption numbers (as well as lower capital expenses due to the softening NB prices), eco handy newbuilding projects constitute today a rather realistic proposal. Moreover, as opposed to the boom years where big yards snubbed handies, nowadays a buyer is offered with the opportunity to build such at a first class Chinese yard. Given the aged fleet, we expect gradual strategic fleet renewals. With (the lack of) financing being the central bottleneck, improved BBHP and alternative financing possibilities may merit the further consideration of those investors not having cash/financing in hand" concluded the report.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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