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Tuesday, 22 November 11
A SURPRISINGLY STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPES - BRS


Positive gains for most of the segments this week, the exception being the Handysizes. Overall the BDI ended the week at 1,895 points (+3.3% week-on-week), while the BCI reached 3,235 (+2.7%), the BPI stood at 1,831 (+4%), the BSI at 1,381 (+4.3%) while the BHI dropped to 661 points (2.1%). A mixed bag of trade news this week: India reported a sharp increase in coal imports for the period April/Oct, up 50% against the previous year, after shortages in the domestic market pushed up imports. The same could not be said of iron ore exports, with India reporting a 25% drop in exports in the same period (Apr/Oct). In China, coal imports fell to 15.7m tonnes in October from the country’s record high of 19m tonnes in September following the build up of large stockpiles by power plants. However the country’s iron ore imports are currently on track to be +10% higher than last year, with 560m tonnes imported Jan-Oct.

Capesize
A surprisingly strong week for the Capes, driven almost exclusively in the early part of the week by the fronthaul trade which saw a gain of around 8%, with rates firmly over $28 pmt. The end of the week also saw a surge in miner activity out of Australia, and Pacific rates represented this on Monday.  The Atlantic was less active, and rates remained flat or dropped. Overall the BCI rose nearly 3%, while the four time charter average rose 4% to $28,340. In the FFA market, quotes for Nov/Dec remain fairly firm, averaging $23,537 per day. However the market is predicting a quick decline in rates in the New Year, with January trading at just $15,042.

Panamax 
The Atlantic market ended the week on a far more balanced note. Increased cargo volume out of USEC and USG provided much needed support and stimulus to a market which recently recorded a fortnight of steady declines in the face of growing tonnage supply and limited prompt business. The 1A index recorded a gain of $578 over the course of the week to close on 18th November at $16,647 per day. There are signs of continuing tightening in tonnage supply although a degree of caution should be exercised as any sustained rise in rates will be dependent on their further fresh business entering the market. Fronthaul business out of the Gulf followed a similar pattern, pushing by $1,151 in the latter half of the week. Overall sentiment proved more resilient than in preceding weeks, although again a degree of caution should be exercised in light of the slow start to the new week beginning 21st November. The Pacific market recorded a steady rise over the week, with the 3A index pushing up by $592 to close at $12,197. Despite improved sentiment however, this needs to be considered in light of a growing supply of prompt tonnage which may place a brake on any sustained rise in the coming days. Reportedly high stockpiles of coal and iron ore at major Chinese ports could imply that recent demand from industrial end users has been driven primarily by a desire to exploit recent declines in the prices of these commodities rather than reflecting strong underlying fundamentals. The short period market for 4/6 months ended the week at around $13,750-$14,000 per day, whilst one year rates ended the week flat at around $13,500 per day.

Supramax/Handysize
The bottoming of the Handy/Supramax market in the East has prompted numerous Charterers to come out with period enquiries. Larger Supras got fixed at middish/high $11,000 for short period with delivery China. Some more coal orders have caused the market to at least stabilize, even if at a low level. The average Pacific round voyage rate is now hovering around $8,000/8,500 for a Tess 52. Recently the notion is spreading that also the numbers of handysize orders are on the rise there. An Imabari 28 type should be worth now around $6,500 for an average Pacific trip. In India there have been a few more iron ore orders seen in the market but in general the market is highly unattractive for Owners. Therefore Charterers with business destined to this area have to dig very deep into their pocket. Supras are now being fixed in excess of $30,000 dely Med for trip to PMO/ India range. Modern Handies can not be fixed below high teens basis dely Skaw/Passero to Suez/Japan range. In ECSA the rates have softened. Supras open West Africa do not get more than $20,000 anymore for outbound trips via ECSA. In the USG Supras can still demand low/mid $30,000s while Handysize rates have come down to mid/high teens for trips to Skaw/Passero range.
Source: Barry Rogliano Salles



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