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Monday, 21 November 11
CAPESIZES DRIVE MARKET LOWER, ANALYSTS DIVIDED ON DRY BULK OUTLOOK IN THE LONG RUN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
 The dry bulk market ended the week on a sour note, with the industry’s benchmark heading downwards to 1,895 points, which represented a slight fall of 0.16%. Capesizes were the main drivers of this trend, with the market falling by 0.71%. Still, the rest of the market segments were higher, with Panamaxes leading the pack, with an increase of 1.38%. In a recent report, consultant analysts PriceWaterHouseCoopers (PwC) said that the size of the Capesize fleet is forecast to rocket over the next three years at the same time as demand growth for seaborne iron ore is set to stagnate. In its report ‘Dry Bulk Shipping - Capes of no Hope?’, PwC said that there are currently 1,200 Capesize vessels worldwide at a value of $45billion but it is estimated that a further 450 more are on order over the next three years which will flood the market. While some of these orders may be delayed or cancelled, the global order book implies there will be rapid growth in seaborne transport of iron ore and coal, the main commodities carried by Capesizes.
David Smith, Assistant Director, PwC Strategy said that "as in other sectors of the shipping industry, dry bulk market participants are assuming that the next decade will look very much like the last in terms of patterns of trade flow growth. This has led to continued orders of new vessels on the assumption that Chinese demand for iron ore will continue to grow rapidly, but our estimates show that growth will be much lower in the future. The reality is that the ‘expected’ growth demand for iron ore is unlikely to materialise given the already high rate of infrastructure investment in China. This will leave a substantially increased number of vessels chasing a broadly unchanged level of cargo, with negative implications for rates. The situation, he added, will be exacerbated by the vessel building programmes being undertaken by the large mining companies. This will decrease the amount of cargo available on the spot market, at a time when the fleet is increasing dramatically, said Mr. Smith.
He went on to mention that "while rates in the Capesize sector have improved over the last three months, we see this as a temporary respite. Continued overcapacity is likely to push rates back towards operating costs, creating significant pressure for owners trading in the spot market.” “The worry, he said, is that these pressures will not be confined to the ship owning community. Low rates over a prolonged period will make it difficult for ship owners to keep up payments to the banks which have made substantial investments in the sector. Major sources of shipping finance include the UK, Germany, Greece, and Scandinavia, with UK banks alone having loans of over $50bn to the shipping sector” concluded Mr. Smith.
Meanwhile, in a separate report, shipowner Golden Ocean said that “most analysts agree that the dry bulk market does not have a demand problem. Iron ore and coal imports to China and coal imports to India are expected to grow at a steady pace over the next 5 years. A lot of new iron ore capacity will enter the market from 2013 onwards, which could put a downward pressure on international iron prices. This should support the freight market due to expensive, low quality Chinese iron ore production. However, the order book for the remainder of this year and 2012 is still a major concern and is the main reason why the forward freight assessment (FFA) is in backwardation.Despite the positive development in the freight market, asset values dropped further during third quarter. A five year old Capesize was priced at $39 million while a newbuilding resale was priced at approximately $50 million. There is a lot of uncertainty related to asset values going forward, but we observe that more forecasters state that they see limited downside” said Golden Ocean.
Analyzing the trade patterns noted during the third quarter, the company mentioned that “the third quarter of 2011 was yet another quarter which surpassed most analysts’ expectations. Given the large order book with record high deliveries both this year and next, it has been difficult to imagine a demand scenario which was able to cope with supply growth and maintain utilization at levels giving owners of dry bulk tonnage decent returns. Capesizes experienced a steady rise from bleak levels. Iron ore is the main commodity carried by Capesizes and China increased its import by more than 17 percent compared to same quarter previous year. Coal imports to China increased by almost 30 percent year-onyear.
In addition, other Asian countries contributed to the strong demand growth. Korea increased its iron ore imports by more than 20 percent and the rebuilding of Japan after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami also contributed positively. These high growth numbers alone are still not sufficient to explain a utilization rate, which averaged 85 percent last quarter. Congestion remains as a positive factor for owners and between six to eight percent of vessel capacity was tied up in the third quarter” said Golden Ocean.
It further mentioned that “Chinese coastal trade increased by 17 percent during the third quarter and more than 300 million tons of dry bulk commodities was carried off the Chinese coast. On an annual basis, this represents 20 million dwt capacity. We have not seen the same focus on slow steaming in dry bulk as in other segments. However, analysis shows that average speed of the sailing fleet has dropped by more than two knots since 2008. This is not due to an effort to improve market conditions but rather a function of high bunker prices and optimizing earnings. Still, the focus has to be on the order book. So far this year approximately 205 vessels in the Capesize segment have been delivered, but at the same time almost 70 vessels of the same size have been scrapped. Delivery ratio compared to the official order book remains below 70 percent” concluded Golden Ocean.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 22 December 11
RI WILL NOT PLAY CATCH-UP WITH GLOBAL COAL DEMAND - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has predicted in its Coal Market Report 2011 that over the next five years, gl ...
Thursday, 22 December 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS LOSING TRACTION AHEAD OF HOLIDAY SEASON - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market kept retreating in the middle of the week, as charterers seem to be looking towards the holiday season and the start of the new ye ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
THE COAL IMPORT INTO CHINA WAS QUIETER AS COAL STOCKS WERE AT HIGH LEVELS - BRS
The BDI ended the week at 1888 points (-1.8%), the BCI corrected to 3572 (-3.4%), the BPI was up at 1,775 (+3.6%), the BSI dropped to 1193 (-3.0%) a ...
Tuesday, 20 December 11
INDIA IMPORTS 66.41 PERCENT MORE COAL FROM INDONESIA LAST MONTH - SOURCES
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world largest coal exporter, shipped 33.476* mln mt of coal in November, which is slightly higher than its Octobe ...
Monday, 19 December 11
KOPEX COMMITS ADDITIONAL ONE MILLION DOLLAR FOR PT TRANSCOAL MINERGY
COALspot.com - Mining contractor Kopex has agreed to extend a further US$1 million to finance the remainder of the expanded drill program at PT Tran ...
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Showing 4921 to 4925 news of total 6871 |
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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