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Wednesday, 16 November 11
A STRONG WEEK FOR THE CAPES - BRS


A sharp bounce by the Cape market pushed the BDI up by 3% last week. This was despite a softening in the other indices with the Panamax, Supramax and Handysize markets declining for the third week running. Overall, the BDI ended at 1,835 points (+3% w-o-w), the BCI at 3,150 (+13%), the BPI at 1,761 (-4%), the BSI at 1,324 (-7%) and the BHI at 675 points (-7%). In the coal markets, China’s benchmark thermal coal prices fell for the first time in three months, as the country’s utility companies finished their autumn stockpiling. It is the first decline in the price since August. Stockpiles are currently at the high level of 71 million tons, with local commentators suggesting there will be no more major buying until early next year.  This stockpiling, which saw Richards Bay coal exports rise nearly 50% in October compared to September, has supported the bulk market and the recent increase in rates. 

Capesize
A strong week for the Capes with plenty of cargo requests in the Atlantic combined with a tight tonnage situation pushing rates up there. Activity by the mining companies in the Pacific saw even greater gains in that basin. The Baltic reported two iron ore cargoes covered on a voyage basis from the St Lawrence in the mid $30's per metric tonne, which equates to around $50,000 per day on a BCI type basis delivery Rotterdam. Overall Hedland-Qingdao saw the greatest gains, at +15% w-o-w, with $11.50 pmt reported. Fronthaul and Atlantic trades also saw gains around 6-8%. In the paper market, the Nov/Dec average peaked at $22,500 during the week, although there was a pullback in both the physical and paper markets by the end of the week, with Nov/ Dec ending at $20,979. Monday saw a 69 point fall in the BCI. 

Panamax
It was another week of declines across the board with the Panamax 4TC closing at $14,079, coming off $603 w-o-w, which was not far off from the previous week’s decline. We saw a drop of $809 per day in the Atlantic w-o-w and $678 in the Pacific, whilst FH shed $657. There remained a clear lack of fresh cargoes for PAC, TA and FH with limited fixture activity throughout the week and a continued high level of open tonnage prevalent in both basins. However towards the end of the week we did see a reduction in open tonnage in the Atlantic, likely due to charterers covering stems or vessels being withdrawn from the market as a possible floor is found. The Indo/China trade was fixing in the $9 pmt range in a week that was interrupted briefly by holiday. The period market remained steady although relatively inactive with very few reported fixtures. 4-6 months ended the week at $14,000 per day levels whilst one year was closer to $13,500 levels.

Supramax/Handy
The Handy/Handymax market remains under pressure in the east where the abundance of prompt vessels and the lack of cargoes have been the main feature for the last 10 days. Not surprisingly Nopac round voyages are being fixed in the mid $7,000s levels. By the same token Indian iron ore exports are very slim leaving little alternatives for owners but to ballast towards South Africa and, further away, South America.  As a consequence, south Atlantic does not have enough cargoes to absorb all these ballasters and transatlantic trips ex ECSA has gone from around $15,000 per day 3 weeks ago to around $12,000/13,000 today.  The only hot spots for owners are the USG for Supramax and Black Sea  for Handies where grains entail reasonable levels of $26 -27,000 ex USG to Med, and low/mid $30,000s for USG/Far East. Handies in the Med found secure homes giving returns in the mid teens.  
Source : Barry Rogliano Salles



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