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Monday, 07 November 11
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS STEAM AHEAD
 Chinese seaborne coal imports have grown greatly in recent years, up from 39.2mt in 2008 to 167.7mt in 2010, with the result that China became a net coal importer in 2009.
Chinese seaborne steam coal imports equated to less than 5% of Chinese coal consumption in 2010. Despite this, China is now the world’s second largest steam coal importer, accounting for 13.7% of seaborne imports in 2010. Thus, any changes in China’s import volumes will have a major impact on the global seaborne steam coal trade.
The existence of a pricing arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices was the catalyst for the upturn in Chinese coal imports. In 2010, higher domestic prices led Chinese consumers to source more coal from the international market, where the price was lower. As the Graph of the Month shows, in January 2010, the price of Indonesian steam coal (spot price + freight) was $39 per tonne cheaper than the Chinese domestic price (spot price + coastal freight) in south China. As a result, China imported an average of 9.0mt per month in Q1 2010, compared to just 1.2mt in the same period of 2009.
However, during the first quarter of 2011, a reduced average of 5.4mt of coal was imported by China. This reflects a higher global coal price (up to $139 per tonne), which made domestic coal a more cost-effective option.
Other Factors
Since April this year, Chinese domestic steam coal prices have risen and now exceed international prices. Thus, Chinese imports reached 12.0mt in September, the largest volume on record.
Other factors, in addition to pricing, support this short-term movement towards coal imports. Firstly, there are fears about potential power shortages, following a sharp decline in hydroelectricity output (down 11.2% and 14.9% y-o-y in July and August respectively). Secondly, it is likely that there will also be heightened demand for coal for power generation, due to the onset of winter. The price arbitrage should stimulate imports, as should reports that the central government will lower taxes and port charges on imported coal.
Potential Limitations
In the medium-term, Chinese domestic coal production may be limited if the government drive for better mine safety leads to mine closures. However, this may not inevitably lead to heightened seaborne imports. Production in countries like Mongolia and regions like Inner Mongolia has been ramping up recently and a railway expansion programme, due to be completed in 2015, will facilitate large-scale coal exports from these areas.
However, it is important not to understate the long-term impact of Chinese demand on seaborne coal trade even though most coal currently consumed by China is produced domestically. Even if seaborne import’s share of Chinese coal demand were to increase by just 2% percentage points over the course of the next decade to stand at 5%, then(assuming long-term demand growth of 2.5%), this would equate to an extra 100mt of annual seaborne import requirements.
In the long-run, any developments along this line would offer a considerable upside for dry bulk trade.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation in ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will modera ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
MINISTRY STICKING TO RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN DESPITE INDUSTRY FEARS - JG
The Jakarta Globe, the one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, reported that, the details of a controversial new regulation that would b ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS
A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.
The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding - ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking sta ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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