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Monday, 07 November 11
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS STEAM AHEAD
 Chinese seaborne coal imports have grown greatly in recent years, up from 39.2mt in 2008 to 167.7mt in 2010, with the result that China became a net coal importer in 2009.
Chinese seaborne steam coal imports equated to less than 5% of Chinese coal consumption in 2010. Despite this, China is now the world’s second largest steam coal importer, accounting for 13.7% of seaborne imports in 2010. Thus, any changes in China’s import volumes will have a major impact on the global seaborne steam coal trade.
The existence of a pricing arbitrage between domestic and international coal prices was the catalyst for the upturn in Chinese coal imports. In 2010, higher domestic prices led Chinese consumers to source more coal from the international market, where the price was lower. As the Graph of the Month shows, in January 2010, the price of Indonesian steam coal (spot price + freight) was $39 per tonne cheaper than the Chinese domestic price (spot price + coastal freight) in south China. As a result, China imported an average of 9.0mt per month in Q1 2010, compared to just 1.2mt in the same period of 2009.
However, during the first quarter of 2011, a reduced average of 5.4mt of coal was imported by China. This reflects a higher global coal price (up to $139 per tonne), which made domestic coal a more cost-effective option.
Other Factors
Since April this year, Chinese domestic steam coal prices have risen and now exceed international prices. Thus, Chinese imports reached 12.0mt in September, the largest volume on record.
Other factors, in addition to pricing, support this short-term movement towards coal imports. Firstly, there are fears about potential power shortages, following a sharp decline in hydroelectricity output (down 11.2% and 14.9% y-o-y in July and August respectively). Secondly, it is likely that there will also be heightened demand for coal for power generation, due to the onset of winter. The price arbitrage should stimulate imports, as should reports that the central government will lower taxes and port charges on imported coal.
Potential Limitations
In the medium-term, Chinese domestic coal production may be limited if the government drive for better mine safety leads to mine closures. However, this may not inevitably lead to heightened seaborne imports. Production in countries like Mongolia and regions like Inner Mongolia has been ramping up recently and a railway expansion programme, due to be completed in 2015, will facilitate large-scale coal exports from these areas.
However, it is important not to understate the long-term impact of Chinese demand on seaborne coal trade even though most coal currently consumed by China is produced domestically. Even if seaborne import’s share of Chinese coal demand were to increase by just 2% percentage points over the course of the next decade to stand at 5%, then(assuming long-term demand growth of 2.5%), this would equate to an extra 100mt of annual seaborne import requirements.
In the long-run, any developments along this line would offer a considerable upside for dry bulk trade.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 15 October 11
BENGAL COAL IMPORT TEST - THE TELEGRAPH
The Telegraph reported that, the power position in Bengal improved today but alarm bells are ringing over imported coal stocks that are running out ...
Friday, 14 October 11
CAPE DERIVATIVES MARKET HAS NOT REFLECTED OWNERS EXPECTATIONS' - FEARNBULK
Handy
The Atlantic market continued its upward trend, with fresh cargo entering the market. Skaw Passero to US Gulf climbed US$ 1500 from la ...
Friday, 14 October 11
ADARO BUYS SERVO MEDA FOR RP200 BIO - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) announced that its subsidiary PT Alam Tri Abadi (ATI), acquired 35% stake in PT Serv ...
Thursday, 13 October 11
DRY BULK MARKETS RALLY CONTINUES, BUT ANALYSTS WARN IT WILL BE SHORTLIVED - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market continued its push forward yesterday, for yet another session, as the BDI (Baltic Dry Index), the industry’s benchmark edg ...
Wednesday, 12 October 11
INDONESIAS COAL RUSH - JOSEPH KIRSCHKE
COALspot.com - Last winter, the Chinese government mobilized thousands of soldiers and reservists of the People’s Liberation Army to the port ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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