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Wednesday, 26 October 11
PWCS GLOBAL SHIPPING BENCHMARKING ANALYSIS: RECOVERY IN 2010 BUT GREAT UNCERTAINLY FOR 2011


The recovery of global trade in 2010 to the same levels as 2008 led to an improvement in the overall performance of shipping companies in 2010 compared to 2009, according to the 2010 Global Shipping Benchmarking Analysis of PwC. But this does not mean that the shipping industry is on a safe path to recovery, since the deteriorating economic situation in Europe and the US have increased volatility and market uncertainty, impacting shipping companies’ performance as reflected in their reported results in the first half of 2011, which have been worse than the same period in 2010.

In its global benchmarking analysis, which is in its third year of publication, PwC has analyzed certain key performance indicators (KPIs) of 150 shipping companies from around the world.  The results are based on an analysis of their published annual reports over the last five years including 2010. The analysis covers both quantitative and qualitative information and gives an insight into how these companies are facing recent challenges and the main drivers of performance in the shipping industry. 

The analysis shows that the Container and the Dry Bulk subsectors were the best performers in 2010, while the Tanker subsector was the worst performer.  With the exception of net debt ratio and the ratio of net fixed assets to sales ratio, all financial performance indicators stabilized or improved in 2010 compared to 2009.

Socrates Leptos-Bourgi, Partner of PwC in Greece and the PwC Global Shipping & Ports Leader, says: “We’ve seen improvements in freight rates across all trades in 2010, which combined with cost savings implemented in 2009, have improved the reported profitability of shipping companies in 2010.  How good or bad things will get in the future depends on how well the world economy copes with the post financial crisis problems that the US is facing, the resolution of the European sovereign debt crisis, the challenge of rebuilding northern Japan and the prospects of the Chinese economy.  However, given the pressures caused from the supply of new tonnage in the shipping markets, it will require an extraordinary performance on all accounts to bring the shipping industry back to a period where returns become relatively attractive again.” 

While the world economy is still fragile, with increasing volatility and uncertainty prevalent across many sectors, businesses continue to face tightening credit conditions and limited liquidity.  Financial institutions have toughened their positions, both in existing exposures and when making new facilities available. Under these conditions many companies were forced to restructure their loan facilities in an attempt to rectify existing issues with their facilities or in preparing for a tougher year ahead. 

Approximately 60% of the container vessel owners covered by our analysis have reported restructuring of their loan obligations during 2010.  The corresponding percentage for the dry bulk sector was 29% and for the tanker sector 12%.  But significantly less owners foresee debt restructuring in 2011. 

Second hand vessel sale & purchase activity was significantly lower in 2010 than in 2009.  The number of reported sales was down by close to 20% compared to 2009.  Vessel values were under pressure reflecting a weaker freight market, an increasing concern about the order book and in general a large number of potential sales candidates. The survey results demonstrate that asset impairments are at lower levels in 2010 compared to 2009 in most sectors, but especially in the dry bulk and tanker sectors.  The container sector reported the largest share of impairments on vessels in 2010, with 42% of the companies incurring impairment losses. 

Our analysis shows clearly lower levels of shipbuilding cancellations in 2010 compared to 2009. Especially in the dry bulk sector there was a dramatic reduction of vessel cancellations among the companies we have covered. The reduced shipbuilding cancellations were accompanied with a resumption of ordering activity.  This may have been the result increasing cargo demand,  the firming of freight rates and low newbuilding prices.  Especially for the dry bulk sector the number of orders for new vessels increased two-fold. This trend is expected to change in 2011 as the lower growth in world trade and the increase newbuilding deliveries is likely to divert ship owners’ interest to other subsectors such as gas (LPG or LNG) carriers.  

According to our analysis, the newbuilding ratio (calculated as the number of vessels on order divided by the number of vessels operated for all companies in our sample) stands at 25% for dry bulk vessels, 7% for tankers and 10% for containerships.  However, these newbuilding ratios are significantly lower than those for the whole shipping market.  We believe this is reflective of the fact that most of the companies in our sample are listed and, being accountable to a number of shareholders in the public markets, tend to follow more conservative strategies, while private companies have more risk tolerance and tend to take a more aggressive view of the market.

Finally, scrapping activity declined in 2010, despite very strong scrap prices and relatively weak hire rates.  Looking at the dry bulk sector, scrapping activity was negligible in the second half of 2010.  However, this trend is likely to change as the container and tanker sectors are under severe pressure from freight rates that declined to levels close to or below operating break-even levels and scrap prices remaining at attractive levels.
Source: PriceWaterHouseCoopers / Hellenic Shipping



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