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Wednesday, 26 October 11
INDIAN MARKET WAS REMAINED TIGHT THE WHOLE LAST WEEK - BRS


The market once more seems to be at a crossroads. The indices last week remained fairly stable (except for the Panamax sector), ending the week as follows: the BDI at 2,153 points (-0.9%), the BCI at 3,566 (-0.6%), the BPI at 2,026 (-2.8%), the BSI at 1,607 (+0.8%) and the BHI at 826 points (+0.5%). Falling iron ore prices continued to prompt discussion, as Chinese steel prices also fell to a 10-month low last week in response to moderating construction demand. Recent steel prices have prompted some Chinese producers to cut output or bring forward maintenance. 62% fine CFR Tianjin finished the week at $142.6 per tonne. The cash price of ore has not traded at less than $140 per ton since September 2010. 

Capesize
Despite the Coaltrans conference in Madrid, and the near one-year high achieved by Capesize rates the previous week, there was no major correction in the market. Overall the BCI came off just 0.6%, while the four time charter average only budged $324 to finish at $30,975. Regionally, Tubarao-Qingdao rates actually rose, and a mid November cargo was reported at $30 per tonne, with plenty of activity in both basins in the second half of the week. Paper rates meanwhile saw significant gains over the week, suggesting confidence for the short term is there. November and Q4 contracts recorded gains of 12.6% and 9.8% respectively w-o-w. Monday saw more positive signs, with the 4TC rising $437, compensating for the losses of the previous week.

Panamax
The Panamax market was strong last week with ‘high’ rates seen until midweek. The end of the week was relatively quiet, and it was the same for the start of the new week. Both TA and Pacific RV kept improving and respectively reached $18-$18,300 and $15,600-$15,800 on Wednesday, with fronthaul rates reaching up to $26,500/day. That said, the market marked a pause with tonnage building up in the Atlantic and Pacific. Fronthaul was reported in the $25,500 region and TA was hovering in the $17,800-$18,000 area.  The market now appears to be topping out. The only market which remained tight the whole week was the Indian market with very little tonnage available for WCI to China trip. We are now expecting a drop in rates as a fair number of ballasters from the East could hit the Atlantic market very soon, so a weak second half of November is predicted, with many players strongly bearish.

Supramax/Handy
The Baltic Supramax rose 13 points to finish at 1,607 last week, while the average of the time charter routes gained $133 to finish at $16,804, mainly driven by the US Gulf. The Atlantic remain very firm with Supras fixed from the USG to Cont at $31,000 daily, while USG to Far East was fixed at $36,250.  The Far East was softening by the end of the week with vessels fixed from China via Indonesia to India at around $14,500 and the Nopac was fixed around $15,000 daily. The activity was also supported by interest in short period with redelivery worldwide at around $14,500-$15,000. In the smaller sizes, the market was pretty steady: the Handy Baltic Index gained 4 points to finish at 826 points, while the time charter route finished at $11,901. 

In the Pacific, the Aussie round dropped more than $700 compared to last week, and a vessel was fixed at $10,400 daily. The NOPAC  also decreased by more than $500. The Atlantic remains firm with a lot of activity supported, and short period around $12,000 for 3 to 5 months. Otherwise, fixtures have been done at $19,000 from Black Sea to India and similar number has been seen from USG to Cont, while $21,000 daily has been seen from ECSA to the Far East.
Source : Barry Rogliano Salles



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