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Wednesday, 19 October 11
METALLURGICAL COAL PRICES TO DROP BELOW US$240/TONNE - WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie Says Metallurgical Coal Prices to Drop Below US$240/tonne by Q4 2012 But Long-term Demand Fundamentals Remain Robust
Wood Mackenzie’s Near-Term Market Outlook cautions of falling metallurgical coal prices from now to Q4 2012, dropping from the current quarterly price of US$285/tonne for premium hard coking coal to under US$240/tonne. However, this price remains significantly above the marginal cost of production and longer-term drivers point to robust metallurgical coal demand in the Asia-Pacific market.
Prakash Sharma, Coal Market Analyst says, “Prices have started to fall from the last quarter and will continue to decline due to softening demand and the recovery of supply from flood-hit basins earlier in the year. The weakening demand is largely attributed to the global macroeconomic slowdown which appears to have accelerated through the summer in much of the developed world. Leading industrial indicators suggest a sharp deterioration in manufacturing activity – reflected by the decline in global steel production.”
Wood Mackenzie’s Senior Economist, Ed Rawle says, “The global economy has entered a period of extreme uncertainty. Wood Mackenzie’s global Gross Domestic Product growth forecast has been revised down from 3.1% to 2.8% in 2011, and 3.7% to 3.6% in 2012. But there are significant downside risks to this outlook. The Eurozone debt crisis remains unresolved and threatens to trigger a European banking crisis. Due to the sheer scale of the European banking sector, this is of major concern since it would likely lead to a global banking crisis with implications for us all.”
Despite near-term downward price movements, Wood Mackenzie says that several factors have the potential to turn this trend. Firstly, some mines have not fully recovered from the 2011 Queensland floods. The approaching wet season could lead to further delays in some mines attaining full production levels. Secondly, persistent worker-strikes at BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance operated mines have the ability to tighten the market as these operations produce 26% of globally traded metallurgical coal. Lastly, US low-volatility supply has been curtailed by mine outages and changes in blending techniques following various mergers.
In the long-term , investors are still energized by the coking coal space with high margins in a current supply-constrained world. Mr. Sharma explains, ”Strong long-term demand is likely to support Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) activity that has been ongoing since early 2008. Demand growth will be led by emerging markets with Asia accounting for 75% of global metallurgical coal demand by 2030. China and India will be key demand drivers, contributing to 60% of Asia Pacific’s total import demand.”
The growth potential of China and India can be attributed to their economic climate relative to the rest of the world. Mr. Rawle says, “The bright spot amidst the uncertainty continues to be the developing world. Specifically, we see China and much of Asia powering ahead, drawing on growth drivers that have been deliberately de-coupled from troubled developed economies over the past couple of years.”
Wood Mackenzie says that China’s reliance on coking coal imports will increase due to insufficient supply of high quality coking coal in the domestic market. China is forging ahead with plans to close all blast furnaces under 1,000 cubic metres and install new blast furnaces with capacities in excess of 2,000 cubic metres. The larger furnaces need coke produced from high-quality coking coal. As a result, a larger volume of this type of coal will be required and China will have to turn to suppliers of the likes of Australia, Mongolia and, to a lesser extent, Mozambique who are all expanding supply.
In summary, Mr. Sharma says, ”The industry should expect premium metallurgical coal prices to fall to a price below US$240/tonne from now until Q4 2012. Although further downside price risks remain given ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and new sources of supply entering the market place, the constant threat of additional unpredictable mine outages and the upcoming rainy season in key supply basins should keep them from falling too far. Long-term demand also remains strong in emerging markets.”
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com. Wood Mackenzie is a research consulting company and it is our preference is to be referred to as research consultants.
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Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZE - TUBARAO /QINGDAO BEING FIXED AT STRONG US$ 29.75 PMT
Handy
The Atlantic market is quite steady, and market seems to be around the same levels as last week. Fewer fixtures reported though. ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
BRACKEN INTERNATIONAL MINING LISTS ON FRANKFURT STOCK EXCHANGE
Press Release - Bracken International Mining (Code:1BM) listed on the Deutsche Börse’s Frankfurt Stock Exchange today at €1.00 with ...
Thursday, 20 October 11
CAPESIZES, SUPRAMAXES LEAD GAINS FOR DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Struggling to find additional support, but still managing to post gains, the dry bulk market has stabilized itself on higher levels again yesterday, ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
SUPRAMAX MARKET WAS VERY FIRM LAST WEEK - BRS
With all sectors contributing positively, the BDI ended the week at 2,173 points (+8.6%), its highest level so far in 2011. The BCI stood at 3,587 ( ...
Wednesday, 19 October 11
ADARO ACQUIRES BUKIT ENIM ENERGI - INSIDER STORIES
Insider Stories reported that, Coal miner PT Adaro Energy Tbk, via its subsidiary dubbed PT Alam Tri Abadi, today revealed a 46% stake takeover of a ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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