We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 12 October 11
CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES BOUND TO RETREAT FROM 2011 HIGHS ON THE BACK OF TONNAGE OVERSUPPLY SAYS BIMCO
 According to Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) breaking yet another 2011 high yesterday and ending the session at 2,106 points, up by 3.64% on the day, dry bulk ship owners couldn’t be happier. But, as BIMCO’s senior analyst Peter Sand notes, this recent positive development is not rooted in an improved fundamental balance between supply and demand. Thus, it’s likely to see an easing of rates from current levels. “Despite the traditionally strong fourth quarter we estimate that the Capesize Time Charter Average will travel southbound from current highs towards the USD 15,000-20,000 per day as the tonnage oversupply is bound to rule again. Amongst the smaller ship sizes, Panamax and Supramax rates are likely to stay firm in the USD 14,000-18,000 per day. Handysize rates are expected in the USD 10,000-14,000 per day interval” said BIMCO.
The organization forecasts a total delivery of more than 90 million DWT of newbuild dry bulk vessels in 2011. “This will result in a fleet growth of over 14%. Deliveries are biased towards the larger segments, but so is scrapping of over-aged tonnage. It is also worth noticing that conversion of single-hull VLCCs into Very Large Ore Carriers for the last year this time around is expected to push up fleet growth by 3 million DWT.
China is on course to deliver iron ore demand growth of 10%, being more or less the single positive iron ore story in 2011. Regardless of the recent Bull Run in Capesize freight rates, second hand values have continuously leaked. This is supporting the argument of a temporary event. But as spot rates have picked up, so have short-term time charters. Six month time charter rates have doubled since the beginning of August while 1 year charter rates have jumped by 50%. The long end of the forward curve remains unaffected” said BIMCO in its analysis.
Demand-wise BIMCO’s Peter Sand said that “The positive development in Capesize freight rates seen since 22 August, when the USD 16,000 per day lid was blown off, also took the BIMCO Capesize time charter earnings forecast by surprise while the remaining segment earnings forecast were spot on. The Capesize segment has sprinted away from the rest of the field into a break-away that is still rolling. Freight rates for Capesize vessels started to rise on the back of stronger Chinese demand for coal and iron ore. As India is still a reluctant exporter of iron ore, stronger demand resulted in more tonnes-miles as Brazil and Australia pitched in as the swing-providers of this vital steel-ingredient to Chinese steel mills. This boosted Capesize demand at the expense of Supramax demand, which normally lifts Indian iron ore to China. Overall development on the dry bulk markets, as expressed by the BDI, has gained 413 index points since 22 August – equal to 27%.
Over the same period of time, Capesize earnings have gained 74% and this compares to moderate earning gains in the smaller segments. Last year, seaborne iron ore demand grew by 10.6% driven by resumed demand from Europe and Japan following the fall-out in 2009. In 2011, iron ore demand growth is seen only in China but as long as it maintains an insatiable iron ore hunger, Capesize vessels are hanging on. However, at a growth rate of just 6% expected in 2011, demand will be the poorest in the past 10 years. Total coal demand is set to grow by just 2% this year as compared to 15.9% in 2010. This does not bode well for overall Capesize demand as the fleet grew by 23% last year and is on course for 13.4% growth this year (depending on level of recycling, scrap steel demand and freight rate development). The current spike in freight rates, suggested to be due to strong Chinese demand for coal and iron ore in a combination with available tonnage imbalance between the basins, seems fundamentally difficult to maintain as overall available tonnage remains abundant” said BIMCO.
As far as supply goes “the active fleet has grown by 10.1% so far in 2011, caused by delivery of 64.2 million DWT, offset by 18.1 million DWT being demolished. According to BIMCO estimates, the fleet is about to grow by 14.5%, unless planned deliveries are postponed beyond what is already assumed.
“Demolition of older tonnage is estimated at 20 million DWT, but could go as high as 25 million if year-to-date demolition swiftness continues. However, the recent jump in Capesize earnings could prove “sufficient” to cool down the rush to the breakers. 55% of all demolished tonnage has originated from Capesize vessels and that has positively reduced the net fleet growth by 4.4% so far. The Capesize fleet would have grown by 20% in 2011 without any demolition activity at all, but holds now the potential of growth by just 13.4%.
The Handysize segment, which saw 6.7% of the fleet during 2009 and another 3.0% during 2010 being removed due to strong demolition, is once again enjoying a noteworthy amount of 2.5 million DWT scrapped so far in 2011 with a clear potential for more to come. While Handysize are currently scrapped at an average age of 33 years, Capesize vessels are broken up at an average age of 27 years. New orders continue to be placed at slower pace than new ships are delivered, bringing the orderbook down from 241 million DWT two months ago to 236.6 million DWT. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio remains very high at 40.5% as the active fleet has reached 583.8 million DWT. Put into perspective of the amount of new built tonnage delivered in previous years, 2011 represents Mount Everest and 2010-2013 deliveries the Himalaya mountain range” concluded the analysis.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 03 September 11
TNPL TO BUY 240K MT OF NON-COKING COAL
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Limited (TNPL), is seeking to procure 240,000 MT +/- 5 percent of non-coking imported coal with ...
Friday, 02 September 11
CAPESIZE DEMAND LIFTS DRY BULK MARKET ONCE AGAIN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In what proves to be the best week of the year for Capesize owners, strong demand has helped propel the dry bulk market to new highs yesterday. The ...
Thursday, 01 September 11
EWP TO BUY 195KT OF VIETNAM COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) has issued an International open bidding for 490kt of sub bituminous coal, according to a bid invitation ...
Thursday, 01 September 11
DRY BULK MARKET TAKES GREAT LEAP FORWARD - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU
In what turned out to be a rather hopeful ending of the month, the last day of August saw the dry bulk market’s benchmark, the BDI (Baltic Dry ...
Tuesday, 30 August 11
FAUJI CEMENT CONSUMED MORE THAN 1 MILLION TONS OF LOCAL COAL
Cooper Minerals Inc.based in Vancouver, BC, Canada, is a junior exploration company engaged in the acquisition, exploration and development of miner ...
|
|
|
Showing 5106 to 5110 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
|
| |
| |
|
