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Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
 COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation investments of at least US$125 billion (bn) will still be required between now and 2020. A recent report titled ‘Power Crunch in South East Asia’ provides insight into this by examining regional demand hotspots of Java-Bali, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Graham Tyler, Head of Asia Gas and Power Research, says, “South East Asia’s power demand growth will outpace Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the next decade. The major demand centres alone will see demand grow from about 92,000 Megawatts (MW) in 2011 to 163,000 MW in 2020, creating a drop in reserve margins, particularly in the 2014 to 2015 period. Therefore timely investments for new power generation will be required.”
The report forecasts that capacity additions in the region are expected to top 30,000 MW and 85,000 MW by 2015 and 2020 respectively. This requires an increase in power project investment from US$44 bn by 2015 to at least US$125 bn by 2020, even if an economic downturn with GDP growth levels similar to 2009 occurs for two consecutive years from 2010-2013. The bulk of the new investment is in coal, amounting to 42% of the investment. The remainder is dominated by gas, which accounts for 18% of the total.
Mr Tyler says, “If immediate actions are taken to correct the existing situation and attract the level of investment required, the impact of power shortages will be softened from 2015 onwards. To achieve this, governments need to encourage the project financing required to meet the power capacity investment levels by speeding up regulatory and approval processes.”
Wood Mackenzie places reserve capacity at an optimal level of 15%. This is crucial to meet unplanned or unexpected power needs. A fall below this will be uncomfortable but if it drops below ten percent, scheduled power cuts should be expected as a regular feature, especially in peak demand seasons that usually fall within the warmer or drier months of the year. Vietnam is hardest hit in the drier months as 40% of their power needs are currently met by hydropower.
The report highlights that Vietnam and Indonesia are most exposed to a potential power crunch and hence require the most investments, representing about 60% of the total required. The regions in West Java and South Vietnam, are particularly in need of new capacity, as they currently have low margins and an over-dependence on power flows from other regions.
Malaysia and Thailand will also see reserve capacity fall below optimal levels in the period to 2015, but the impact should be more manageable as they have been quick to respond to the power shortages by importing power, announcing new projects and speeding up the development of existing ones. These steps will alleviate the power crunch unless project delays or higher demand growth occurs, in which case both countries will also need additional investments.
Summarising, Mr Tyler says, “Power demand growth will increase substantially in the next decade. This strong growth signals that investments of US$125 bn are required to build power capacity additions, even if we see a repeat of 2009’s economic recession over the next two years. Encouraging timely investments in West Java and South Vietnam will be especially crucial and governments can play a part in prioritising investments by expediting processes where possible.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. Wood Mackenzie analyses and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com.
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Friday, 23 September 11
UT TO PRODUCE 7 MMT OF COAL BY 2012
PT United Tractors Tbk is targeting a 7 million tons of coal production next year, a 55.55% increase from 4.5 millions targeted this year, said Pres ...
Friday, 23 September 11
RECORD RECYCLING ACTIVITY STIRS OPTIMISM IN DRY BULK SAYS BIMCOS ANALYSIS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
As expected at the start of the year, dry bulk ship owners were expected to flock scrapyards around the world, in order to take advantage of attract ...
Friday, 23 September 11
PANAMAX EXPERIENCED A SOFTENING IN RATES - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
Still a good boost of fresh cargoes entering the market. Vessels in Black Sea with GOA clearance and Baltic positions are fetching tick abov ...
Wednesday, 21 September 11
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA FALL, CHINA BUYS MORE
COALspot.com - Indian coal imports from Indonesia fall to below 6 million tons in August, and this fall was continuing last few months. Ho ...
Wednesday, 21 September 11
2ND ANNUAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
2nd Annual Shale Gas Summit 31 October – 3 November 2011 JW Marriott Hotel, Hong Kong
According to a recent EI ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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