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Thursday, 06 October 11
SOUTH EAST ASIAS AGGRESSIVE POWER DEMAND GROWTH WILL REQUIRE INVESTMENT OF US$125 BN BY 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com - Wood Mackenzie says that South East Asia’s demand growth for new power generation is so aggressive that new power generation investments of at least US$125 billion (bn) will still be required between now and 2020. A recent report titled ‘Power Crunch in South East Asia’ provides insight into this by examining regional demand hotspots of Java-Bali, Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.
Graham Tyler, Head of Asia Gas and Power Research, says, “South East Asia’s power demand growth will outpace Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the next decade. The major demand centres alone will see demand grow from about 92,000 Megawatts (MW) in 2011 to 163,000 MW in 2020, creating a drop in reserve margins, particularly in the 2014 to 2015 period. Therefore timely investments for new power generation will be required.”
The report forecasts that capacity additions in the region are expected to top 30,000 MW and 85,000 MW by 2015 and 2020 respectively. This requires an increase in power project investment from US$44 bn by 2015 to at least US$125 bn by 2020, even if an economic downturn with GDP growth levels similar to 2009 occurs for two consecutive years from 2010-2013. The bulk of the new investment is in coal, amounting to 42% of the investment. The remainder is dominated by gas, which accounts for 18% of the total.
Mr Tyler says, “If immediate actions are taken to correct the existing situation and attract the level of investment required, the impact of power shortages will be softened from 2015 onwards. To achieve this, governments need to encourage the project financing required to meet the power capacity investment levels by speeding up regulatory and approval processes.”
Wood Mackenzie places reserve capacity at an optimal level of 15%. This is crucial to meet unplanned or unexpected power needs. A fall below this will be uncomfortable but if it drops below ten percent, scheduled power cuts should be expected as a regular feature, especially in peak demand seasons that usually fall within the warmer or drier months of the year. Vietnam is hardest hit in the drier months as 40% of their power needs are currently met by hydropower.
The report highlights that Vietnam and Indonesia are most exposed to a potential power crunch and hence require the most investments, representing about 60% of the total required. The regions in West Java and South Vietnam, are particularly in need of new capacity, as they currently have low margins and an over-dependence on power flows from other regions.
Malaysia and Thailand will also see reserve capacity fall below optimal levels in the period to 2015, but the impact should be more manageable as they have been quick to respond to the power shortages by importing power, announcing new projects and speeding up the development of existing ones. These steps will alleviate the power crunch unless project delays or higher demand growth occurs, in which case both countries will also need additional investments.
Summarising, Mr Tyler says, “Power demand growth will increase substantially in the next decade. This strong growth signals that investments of US$125 bn are required to build power capacity additions, even if we see a repeat of 2009’s economic recession over the next two years. Encouraging timely investments in West Java and South Vietnam will be especially crucial and governments can play a part in prioritising investments by expediting processes where possible.”
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. Wood Mackenzie analyses and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com.
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Thursday, 06 October 11
REALM SECURES 51% OF KATINGAN RIA COAL PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
•Realm secures 51% of PT Katingan Ria Thermal Coal Project in Central Kalimantan
•Realm takes ownership of Kalres Limited
•Acquisit ...
Thursday, 06 October 11
CHINESE DEMAND FOR COAL IMPORTS TO MODERATE IN 2012 - MISWIN MAHESH
COALspot.com - We expect Chinese demand growth for imported steam coal to moderate over the next year. Steam coal imports into China will modera ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
MINISTRY STICKING TO RAW COMMODITY EXPORT BAN DESPITE INDUSTRY FEARS - JG
The Jakarta Globe, the one of the leading English news paper in Indonesia, reported that, the details of a controversial new regulation that would b ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASINS BECAME TIGHTER FOR PANAMAX LAST WEEK - BRS
A slump for both the Capes and Panamaxes sent the BDI down 1% this week, falling to 1,899 points.
The Capes saw the greatest movement, sliding - ...
Wednesday, 05 October 11
WITH CHINA ON HOLIDAY, DRY BULK MARKET REMAINS STAGNANT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has remained to healthy levels after last month’s rally, but with China going on holiday this week, things are looking sta ...
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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