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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
PANAMAX MARKET MOVED SIDEWAYS OVERALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment in which the week prior ended carried on through-out last week as well, the end of which marked the first posi ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
SHIFT IN INTERNATIONAL COAL TRADE TO THE PACIFIC BASIN WILL CONTINUE - IMF
COALspot.com: The shift in international coal trade to the Pacific Basin will continue, IMF said in its latest Medium-Term Coal Market Report.
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Wednesday, 21 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS, INTERMODAL
The World Bank has lowered its forecast for global growth in 2015 to 3% down from its previous level of 3.4% amid rising concerns over the economic ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
THERMAL COAL PRICE OUTLOOK DEPENDENT ON INDIAN IMPORT DEMAND - MATTHEW BOYLE, CRU
COALspot.com: Supply and demand side developments in India will be an important determinant of future market dynamics and prices for thermal coal a ...
Wednesday, 21 January 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 16.19% ON MONTH TO 15.80 MIL MT IN DECEMBER' 14
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.136 billi ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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