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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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Monday, 16 March 15
MAKING THE WORLD GO ROUND - SEABORNE TRADE! - CLARKSONS
Money, or even love if you prefer, are claimed to make the world go round. For the shipping world, however, it’s trade that sets things spinn ...
Monday, 16 March 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS: DECLINED
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.48 per MT (-4.77%) month over month and US$ 0.93 (-1.84%) we ...
Monday, 16 March 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA THERMAL COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.74% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 2.17 (-3.74%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.67 (-1 ...
Sunday, 15 March 15
BDI DECLINED LESSER THAN 1% WEEK OVER WEEK; INDO-INDIA FIRM
COALspot.com: The most of indices, including bulk dry index were falling this week. The BDI has been down by just 0.53 points and closing at 562 po ...
Saturday, 14 March 15
CAPESIZE DRY BULKERS TO AVERAGE BETWEEN $3,000 AND $9,000/DAY IN THE COMING WEEKS SAYS BIMCO
BIMCO issued its latest short-term estimates for the dry bulk market. For March/May: BIMCO assesses that the Capesize time charter (T/C) average ra ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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