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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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