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Tuesday, 06 September 11
INDONESIAS PROPOSED COAL EXPORT BAN MAY HAVE IMPACT ON THE INDIAN POWER SECTOR - DIPESH DIPU
COALspot.com - This is a special interview about Indonesian proposed coal export ban by 2014, with Mr. Dipesh Dipu, Director of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu, India.
The Indonesian government is currently in the process of drafting a new regulation that could ban the export of low-grade coal by January 12, 2014. This is likely to apply to coal below 5700 kcal/kg on air dried basis in value.
As of now Indonesia is producing around 150 million tons of coal with calorific value below 5700 GAD (according to chairman of Indonesian coal mining association). However by 2014, there are possibilities the total production of below 5700 GAD coal may reach more than 200 million per annum.
Will Indonesian coal export ban impact on the Indian fuel requirements?
The earlier grade of coal that was being considered for proposed ban has GCV of 5100 kcal/kg of less (adb), which can be comparable to 3800-4200 kcal/kg (arb) domestic coal available in India. This grade of coal has found favor in India primarily due to likely price advantage but economics of power generation based on such grade of imported coal may be a suspect. This considering that such grades of coal from Indonesia typically have high moisture content, which makes transportation cost per unit of energy generated higher. The quantum of the low grade of coal (<5100 kcal/kg adb) procured from Indonesia is likely to remain relatively low.
However, if the new definition of low grade coal is applied (<5700 kcal/kg adb), it may be reasonable to believe that such a ban may have impact on the Indian power sector as volumes in this grade of coal are expected to rise in the proportion of coal exports to India. Several of the acquisitions made by Indian power generation companies in Indonesia have been in coal blocks that will produce coal of this grade, and a blanket ban on the exports can jeopardize power plant development in India.
On the other hand, the domestic Indonesian market may not be prepared to consume all the coal mined of this grade in view of the power generation capacity addition plans in Indonesia. In such a case, the coal mine development is likely to be deferred. The Indonesian law makers may need to reconsider domestic market demand, investment climate in coal sector and impact of the legislation on the export revenues.
What is the alternative source for Indian power industry if the proposed coal export ban come into effect by 2014?
Indian power generation companies have been forced to look out for coal assets abroad due to the investment and regulatory environment within the country. India boasts of more than 110 billion tonnes of coal reserves, which largely fall within a 300 meters of depth. If the regulatory and investment environment is amended to allow greater participation of private sector Indian dependence on imports will be reduced.
However, for imports, India will continue to look at Indonesia, South Africa, Australia and newer destinations like Mozambique and Columbia. But these sources also have constraints, domestic demands in South Africa is likely to restrict quantum jump in exports out of South Africa. Indonesia has also proposed domestic market obligations. Mozambique may have infrastructure constraints for large volumes of coal being transported from Tete province to ports of Maputo, Ncala or Beira. Australian coal is of high quality but may have higher costs of mining and transport.
What would be the additional cost if Indian consumers switch their sourcing origin from Indonesia?
Indonesia has competitive advantage due to its geographical closeness. However, on a per tonne basis, assuming comparable quality, costs of transport may make marginal difference when compared with South Africa and Mozambique.
When compared to Australian coal, due to the high quality, cost of energy may well be comparable even though shipping costs are higher. Between Indonesian coal (5500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 90 per tonne) and Australian coal (6500 kcal/kg adb priced at USD 120 per tonne), indicative variable cost difference of power generation may be about Indian Rupees 0.20 to 0.30 per kWh (electricity unit) in favor of Indonesian coal.
Will it affect Indian economy growth or this coal export ban is ignorable as India can easily identify alternative sources of fuel?
The magnitude of growth in power generation in India will necessarily mean that coal will remain the mainstay. Natural gas has had issues of availability. Nuclear plant development is facing socio-political challenge in view of the risks of technology failure. Development of hydel power has also faced issues of land acquisition, rehabilitation & resettlement apart from the technical issues of hydro-geological features. Renewable sources such as solar and wind generation are still projected to constitute a small portion of India power generation mix. Identifying an alternative source that can match coal in its accessibility, availability and affordability in the context of scale of capacity addition required in India is a challenge.
What is the Indian government's role on this issue, whether government has to come out with the solution such as easing Indian mining and environment law, open up mining for foreigners, G2G arrangement, etc…?
There is a need to look at domestic sources with pro-active and constructive approach and make all necessary legal and statutory amendments that make the resources available and mineable. Easing the regulations may not be one of such measures but making those regulations work in sync with each other in a time bound and predictable manner must certainly be.
There is certainly a case for opening the domestic coal sector for private participation, including independent miners, and for foreign participation so that newer technology and enhanced scale of operations are implemented in India. The regulation also needs to permit risk capital to come in for prospecting and exploration.
For imports the G2G relations can be leveraged to secure coal assets. India has good relationship with Indonesia and has also signed a tax treaty with Mozambique in 2010 which will facilitate investments. Government may also engage with these countries to ease exports to India and extend fiscal support to coal mining companies investing in mining and associated infrastructure development.
About Dipesh Dipu
Dipesh Dipu works as Director with Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu India Pvt. Ltd in the Energy and Resources consulting practice of the firm and anchors the Firm’s initiative in the mining and metals sectors.
He is a mining engineering graduate from Indian School of Mines and is a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA). He has also done executive program in business management from Indian Institute of Management Calcutta. Dipesh has recently been awarded the Abheraj Baldota Gold Medal for the Young Mining Engineer of the Year 2007 by the Mining Engineers’ Association of India in recognition of his contributions in the improvement of mining industry in India.
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Wednesday, 31 March 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL MODERATELY FALLING, BUT POSITIVE SIGNS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The irregularities of the current dry bulk market have been more than evident in the fact that panamax vessels today earn more than their larger cap ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
INDIKA ENERGYS PROFIT HIT BY FOREX LOSS AND CABOTAGE - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reportd that, PT Indika Energy posted a 30 percent drop in 2009 net profit due to a foreign exchange loss and impairment of intang ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
ITMG TO UP COAL OUTPUT DESPITE PERMIT PROBLEMS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the country’s third largest coal producer PT Indo Tambang Raya Megah (ITMG) said it can raise output although ...
Tuesday, 30 March 10
ANALYST SEES BDI LIFT, SUGGESTS DRY BULK SHORT SQUEEZE
Analysts at Credit Suisse are bullish on Diana and see a potential short squeeze elsewhere in the sector. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -- an industry ...
Tuesday, 30 March 10
CHINA'S DROUGHT RAISES COAL PRICES, LOWERS HYDROPOWER
Bloomberg reported that, Benchmark coal prices at Qinhuangdao, China’s largest port handling the fuel, rose for the first time in 10 weeks aft ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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