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Tuesday, 23 August 11
A SHARP INCREASE IN THE BDI - BRS


A sharp increase in the BDI this week, driven by the rise in Capesize rates. Overall the BDI was up 13.5% to 1,462 points on the back of a 20% surge in the BCI to 2,220 points. The BCI has traded over 2,000 points for only 17 days this year. In the smaller sizes, there was less change, with the BPI and BSI rising 6% to 1,609 and 1,338 respectively. Finally the Handies saw marginal change, rising just 6 points to 648.  An item in the Indian press reported that Coal India had overtaken oil and gas group Reliance Industries as the country’s most valued company. According to the recently published BP Statistical Review of World Energy, coal represented 53% of India’s fuel consumption in 2010, while oil and gas together represented just 40%. Analysts confirmed as long as India continued to grow so would coal demand, with the government saying consumption could triple in the next two decades to 2bn tonnes. 

Capesize
An increase in cargos and a lack of available tonnage combined to push Capesize rates up sharply this week, with the 4TC reaching $15,136, a rise of over 40%. Atlantic and fronthaul trades both showed double digit gains, with BrazilChina exceeding $23 per ton by the close of the week. The Pacific was the only ‘loser’ with rates rising only 9% to close at just under $9 per tonne. All indices rose again on Monday, indicating there is faith in a further strengthening in rates, on the back of expected fresh cargos. In the FFA market, rates moved up by 6% for Cal 2012 to just over $13,000 per day but the biggest increase was shown for September trading which finished the week at over $15,000 per day. 

Panamax
Last week the Panamax market remained quiet and almost flat with very little fresh activity reported. However, freight rates kept rising slowly, following the Cape trend. The spot index posted a shy US$500 gain over the week with the Pacific basin recording the higher rise (P3A +US$870/day). Meanwhile, open tonnage stayed unchanged in the Atlantic but built up in the Pacific so the picture for the coming days is still unclear. The Transatlantic round voyage was traded in the $14,000/$14,500 range at the beginning of last week in a very quiet market due to major Orthodox/Catholic bank holiday. Positive sentiment was shared among players after this slow start, pulled by a booming Cape market. That said, as oversupply has absorbed every single fresh cargo over the last weeks, this slight recovery is not seen as a sustainable one. Fronthaul market was almost muted in the first part of the week but showed some colours finally, with an Aughinish to Far East fixture via US Gulf done in the mid $20,000. In the Pacific, tonnage was tight early on then picked up again in a rising market. Market was active with a fair number of fresh cargoes out of Indonesia. Indonesia round voyage was trading at around $9,000/$9,500 at the beginning of the week and broke $10,000 Friday. Short period also rose by about $1,000 with much interest from charterers bidding $12,000 for 4-6 months. One could say that the next market direction is still unclear as open tonnage is rising while the index was doing the same, along with the FFA market. It is the same story today with freight rates (physical and paper) pushing while open tonnage keeps building up. These contradictions cannot last forever…

Supramax/Handy
The Baltic Supramax went up 113 points to finish at 1,338 last week, while the average of the time charter routes gained $870 to finish at $13,989 per day. Far East was very active with Supras fixing Aussie round delivery China at $13,000 per day. In the Atlantic, USG to Med with pet coke has been fixed at $27,250 daily, while trip to Far East were fixed close to $30,000 daily. The activity was supported in the Far East by interest in short period redelivery worldwide around $14,500 daily. In the smaller sizes the handy Baltic Index went up to 6 points to finish at 648 with the time charter route gaining $97 per day to finish at $9,552.  Far East mainly drove the increase of the Baltic index with several vessels fixed close to $11,000 daily for Aussie round. Compared to last week the Atlantic basin remained firm with Handysizes rating at $15,000 from ECSA to Cont, while USG remained quiet. Activity in the Atlantic was also sustained in the Atlantic with more cargo out of the Black Sea.
Source: Barry Rogliano Salles



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