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Wednesday, 17 August 11
SHIP OWNERS COULD FACE PAIN ON THE BACK OF GLOOMY ECONOMYS PREDICTIONS - HELLENIC SHIPPING


The latest market turmoil, coupled with the renewed risk of a global recession could very well signal more troubled times for ship owners of all ship types. After all, owners, especially tanker ones, are already struggling amid extremely weak rates, abundant tonnage supply and prospects of more new tankers entering the fleet in the next few years. Similar conditions were faced by owners in 2009, yet back then the balance sheets were much healthier following years of prosperity in the industry between 2004 and 2008.

In its latest weekly report, London-based shipbroker notes some striking similarities between today’s crisis and the one of 2008. It says that “the whole world was taken aback when Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US’s credit rating from AAA by one level to AA+. The downgrade took place after a week of rapidly falling equity markets internationally and a perilous escalation of the debt crisis in Europe.

As a result, the equity markets this week also have been very volatile. Shipping stocks have not been immune to turmoil, with many publicly traded companies seeing double digit losses. A similar picture was observed in many commodities markets, with Brent front month futures falling to a low of $102.57/bbl earlier this week, from a recent peak of $126.65/bbl in mid-April. The latest developments create a sense of déjà vu, with what economies around the globe went through at the outset of the recession in the second half of 2008. Back then, equity markets also witnessed a rapid decline. Likewise, oil and many other commodities plummeted. Of course, the crisis now is not exactly the same as the economic meltdown back in late 2008. However, the striking similarities are alarming and intensify the fears of a double-dip recession.

Indeed, we are already noting signs of slowdown both in the global economy and in world oil demand. Many advanced economies are revising down their growth expectations on the back of sluggish economic activity in recent months. In terms of oil, the International Energy Agency provided initial estimates of net zero growth in global oil demand in June.

Furthermore, it warned that current economic climate poses a major threat to future demand growth. The agency estimated that a 1.4% reduction in world GDP figures this year and next will cut the expansion in global oil consumption by 0.3 million b/d in 2011 and by 1.3 million b/d in 2012” noted Gibson.

Still, it offers a note of optimism, commenting that “however it is still too early to forecast the doom and gloom seen back in late 2008 and throughout 2009 to be relived this time around. Nonetheless, the world appears to be a different place now than it was two weeks ago, with the latest developments clearly posing a colossal new threat not only to global economy at large but also to the tanker industry” concluded Gibson.

Meanwhile, in its analysis of the past week for the tanker markets, Gibson mentioned that “Chinese refineries undergoing maintenance, a midweek holiday in Singapore and a softer bunker price was always going to continue to provide impetus to Charterers to exert pressure on what is already a very weak VLCC market. And this will probably be unrelenting as we veer towards the end of the August programme with East continuing at around WS 45 and West at WS 35. Suezmaxes have gradually thinned out, but without sufficient enquiry to help support them, rates will continue to march sideways at around WS 77.5 East and WS 57.5 West. An exceedingly quiet week on the Aframaxes leads them to being relatively untested by their usual standards, but the continued weakness in the Far East will allow 80 x WS 110 East to be the prevailing benchmark set by Charterers for Arabian Gulf to Singapore.

Suezmax enquiry in West Africa remains at a drip feed basis as it continues to test Owners' mettle. Voyages to the Atlantic are now being achieved at 130 x WS 62.5 with voyages to the continent commanding around 5 points higher with the status quo persisting into next week. The VLCC market remains relatively unchanged rate wise since last week as Eastern destinations are operating a shade below 260,000 x WS 44, with West at WS 47.5 with moderate forward enquiry unlikely to provide few surprises on the horizon.

Aframaxes began the week as the previous ended, with activity continuing. The critical mass seemed to have been achieved as rates crept up 2.5 points for all areas with WS 90 for Ceyhan loads and reports of WS 92.5 for Black Sea loads being achieved. However, as the cargos began to dry up a little in the Mediterranean and fixing dates began to drift further away, rate increases hit a wall and look to be stable now. However, as the new bunker price filters through to Owners' calculations we may see erosion once more. Suezmax enquiry emanating from the Black Sea is just enough to keep rates at around 135 x WS 70, but a mild discount can possibly be on the cards next week if the same mood and inactivity persists” said Gibson.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping



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