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Wednesday, 13 July 11
ANOTHER FIRMER WEEK FOR THE CAPES - BRS


Barry Rogliano Salles reported that, there were mixed results for the dry bulk market this week: the Capesize and Panamax markets performed well gaining almost 3.5% and 6% w-o-w to 2,115 and 1,684 points respectively.

Conversely, the Supramax and the Handies lost about 2.2% and 1.8% respectively, falling to 1,277 and 699 points.  Despite the supposed end to the Karnatake ore export ban, it will be some time before India’s exports return to normal. The Federation of Indian Mineral Industries this week predicted exports would reach between 70-75m tonnes in the current financial year, compared to 95 million tonnes in 2010/11, and 117m tonnes in 2009/10.

FIMI attributed the decline to the ongoing delay in lifting the ban, plus higher export duties and rail freight rates. India also faces another possible tax in the form of a royalty sharing mechanism.

Capesize 
Another firmer week for the Capes, with the 4TC rising $748 to just under $14,000 at close, and the BCI touching 2,115 points. The Pacific showed strong gains and $8.50 was recorded for Hedland-Qingdao with one fixture reported at $8.75, while TubaraoQingdao reached $20.70. Tonnage was again tight in the Atlantic, though both basins softened at week end. Friday saw the 4TC’s first loss in June, and sentiment seems braced for further declines this week. The effect on paper prices was a $875 and $585 increase on July and 3Q prices. $12,000 per day appeared to be the going rate for 4-6 month charters by close. The 4TC fell $420 on Monday. 

Panamax  
After a sluggish beginning to the week, a marked improvement was recorded in the latter half across both TA and Fronthaul markets, with the 1A and 2A indices recording increases of $1,142 and $980 respectively between 01/07/2011 and 08/07/2011. Sentiment improved on the back of increased cargo volumes and a tightening of prompt tonnage in the Atlantic, with TA rates hovering around $16,000 and Fronthaul levels steadying around low $20,000’s per day.

Indeed, the Atlantic basin has appeared more supported in recent days, as opposed to the Pacific which came under a great deal of pressure the previous week due to stubbornly high levels of available tonnage. A number of short period fixtures were reported in the East this week for 4/6 months in the region of $12,500 per day; however overall sentiment continues to remain cautious in the face of a long list of open ships in the market, with only slight improvements seen in spot Pacific spot rates.

Supramax/Handy
The Supramax market followed the trend of the previous week. The BSI lost about 2% from Friday to Friday, the average of the TC routes closing the week at $13,356. In all areas the market is softening. Supramaxes are getting fixed in the mid/ high 20s for petcoke out of the US Gulf with redelivery Med, whereas for redelivery Far East same units are obtaining low 30s. Supras were fixed at about $15,000 delivery West Africa via ECSA with redel Skaw/Passero range and in the low 20s for redelivery East. The Pacific has been rather quiet over the last week.

The number of Supramax stems for Nopac and Aussie rounds remain scarce. The number of nickle ore and coal stems has also dwindled. Indian exports of iron ore have all dried up on the west coast with the monsoons, but a handful of stems are now visible along the east coast. The movement of coal into India however has been constant. On the short period front, Supras are being fixed at $15,000 for 3 to 5 months delivery Med with redelivery Atlantic, while levels are around $13,000 for delivery Far East with redelivery worldwide.
Source: Barry Rogliano Salles  



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