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Monday, 11 July 11
REFLECTIONS ON THE FLEET REACHING ONE BILLION TONNES - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
“A billion gross tonnes of shipping” has a nice ring to it. It presents the industry as a business of substance, with its 85,000 ships worth almost $1 trillion. So the news that on 1st July 2011 the world merchant fleet passed this important milestone deserves a little reflection on where we have come from and where we are going.
55 Years of Change
The last anniversary of this sort was in 1955 when the fleet reached 100 million gross tons. But today’s fleet is very different. Of course it has grown tenfold, averaging 4.2% per year, but back in 1955 shipping was also very different. Liners and tramps dominated cargo and the premium cargo was people. Fifty six years and 100,000+ investment decisions later everything has changed. Air liners replaced passenger liners; containerships replaced cargo liners and bulkers replaced tramps. Only tankers survived and they are much bigger.
Investment Roller-Coaster
Although this sounds like neat strategic development, for shipping investors it was a nightmare because the growth path was unbelievably volatile. Business started with a surge of growth - between 1955 and 1975 the growth rate accelerated from 4% to 10.2% as investors queued up to order super-tankers and bulkers, funded by the emerging Eurodollar market. That phase peaked in 1975 and by 1985 growth had slumped to -1%. Then it all started again, with growth surging to 8+% in 2010. Part of this volatility was caused by fluctuations in trade growth which was very fast (8%pa) in the run up to the 1975 peak, then grew by just 1% pa in the 1980s and by around 3% since then. But fleet growth was supercharged by investor’s enthusiasm for playing the market using easy Eurodollar finance.
Productivity Puzzle
One surprising lesson from all this is that, despite the chaotic boom and bust environment, the industry was very successful in delivering the new technology which the globalising world economy needed - a state-of-the-art fleet of tankers, bulk carriers and containerships, all carefully graduated in size to meet the complex needs of the modern trading world for cheap sea transport. Another surprise is that the fleet’s transport “productivity” did not increase very much. In 1955 100m GT transported 820mt of cargo, about 8.2t per GT. Today 1 billion GT delivers around 8.4bn tons of cargo, an average of 8.4t per GT.
A Job Well Done
So there you have it. Shipping cycles are about getting the right ships for the trade, at the cheapest freight rates. After 100,000 angst ridden investment decisions shipping investors have really delivered the goods - a billion tons of ships, tailored to the complex needs of the modern global economy, and super low freight rates. On which note, an extra pat on the back to Capesize owners who are doing such a splendid job today, regardless of cost.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 17 April 11
ADARO TO PROPOSE US$75 MILLION DIVIDEND
COALspot.com - One of Indonesia's largest coal miner PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO) is keen to propose a final dividend of US$75 million or Rp 20.17 (U ...
Saturday, 16 April 11
TNPL RECEIVES 1.6MT OF COAL OFFERS - SOURCES
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint and Papers Ltd. has closed its 160,000 MT coal inquiry today.
More than a half a dozen of Indian coal t ...
Friday, 15 April 11
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON FALLING, ON LOW DEMAND AND HIGH SUPPLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has kept its falling patern this week, with the industry’s benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) retreating again yesterda ...
Thursday, 14 April 11
SUPRAS IN N.CHINA GET CLOSE TO $12000 FOR TRIPS VIA INDONESIA TO INDIA - FEARNBULK
Handy
The Atlantic market remains flat - very little new/fresh business and slow activity. Considerable prompt tonnage remains unfixed. The USG pa ...
Wednesday, 13 April 11
CAPESIZE VESSELS ARE DELIVERED AT A PACE OF ONE NEW VESSEL EVERY SECOND DAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In a clear sign that it will take a significant rise in global seaborne dry bulk trade in order to be able to absorb the flurry of new building tonn ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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