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Monday, 11 July 11
REFLECTIONS ON THE FLEET REACHING ONE BILLION TONNES - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
“A billion gross tonnes of shipping” has a nice ring to it. It presents the industry as a business of substance, with its 85,000 ships worth almost $1 trillion. So the news that on 1st July 2011 the world merchant fleet passed this important milestone deserves a little reflection on where we have come from and where we are going.
55 Years of Change
The last anniversary of this sort was in 1955 when the fleet reached 100 million gross tons. But today’s fleet is very different. Of course it has grown tenfold, averaging 4.2% per year, but back in 1955 shipping was also very different. Liners and tramps dominated cargo and the premium cargo was people. Fifty six years and 100,000+ investment decisions later everything has changed. Air liners replaced passenger liners; containerships replaced cargo liners and bulkers replaced tramps. Only tankers survived and they are much bigger.
Investment Roller-Coaster
Although this sounds like neat strategic development, for shipping investors it was a nightmare because the growth path was unbelievably volatile. Business started with a surge of growth - between 1955 and 1975 the growth rate accelerated from 4% to 10.2% as investors queued up to order super-tankers and bulkers, funded by the emerging Eurodollar market. That phase peaked in 1975 and by 1985 growth had slumped to -1%. Then it all started again, with growth surging to 8+% in 2010. Part of this volatility was caused by fluctuations in trade growth which was very fast (8%pa) in the run up to the 1975 peak, then grew by just 1% pa in the 1980s and by around 3% since then. But fleet growth was supercharged by investor’s enthusiasm for playing the market using easy Eurodollar finance.
Productivity Puzzle
One surprising lesson from all this is that, despite the chaotic boom and bust environment, the industry was very successful in delivering the new technology which the globalising world economy needed - a state-of-the-art fleet of tankers, bulk carriers and containerships, all carefully graduated in size to meet the complex needs of the modern trading world for cheap sea transport. Another surprise is that the fleet’s transport “productivity” did not increase very much. In 1955 100m GT transported 820mt of cargo, about 8.2t per GT. Today 1 billion GT delivers around 8.4bn tons of cargo, an average of 8.4t per GT.
A Job Well Done
So there you have it. Shipping cycles are about getting the right ships for the trade, at the cheapest freight rates. After 100,000 angst ridden investment decisions shipping investors have really delivered the goods - a billion tons of ships, tailored to the complex needs of the modern global economy, and super low freight rates. On which note, an extra pat on the back to Capesize owners who are doing such a splendid job today, regardless of cost.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Saturday, 28 May 11
GOLDEN MINES IPO AT RP 2,300 - RP 3,500
Coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines, a wholly owned subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA) which is controlled by Indonesian businessman ...
Friday, 27 May 11
LARGER DRY BULK CARRIERS LEAD BDIS RALLY THIS WEEK - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Larger dry bulk vessels have kept on leading the market’s rise this week, with the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rising by a more than healthy 3.43% ...
Wednesday, 25 May 11
70 PERCENT OF HARUMS PRODUCTION SOLD - BISNIS INDONESIA
Coal producer PT Harum Energy Tbk claimed that out of this year's total production target of 10 million tons, 70% or 7 million tons had been sold, ...
Wednesday, 25 May 11
MINERS BACK GOVT PLAN TO FREEZE MINING PERMITS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal miners hailed the government’s decision to impose a moratorium on the issuance of new mining permits, saying the freeze would ...
Wednesday, 25 May 11
DRY BULK MARKET ENTERS WEEK ON A HIGH NOTE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has managed to end its downward trend of the past few weeks and surge back on higher ground. Yesterday, the Baltic Dry Index (BD ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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