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Monday, 11 July 11
REFLECTIONS ON THE FLEET REACHING ONE BILLION TONNES - CLARKSONS / HELLENIC SHIPPING
“A billion gross tonnes of shipping” has a nice ring to it. It presents the industry as a business of substance, with its 85,000 ships worth almost $1 trillion. So the news that on 1st July 2011 the world merchant fleet passed this important milestone deserves a little reflection on where we have come from and where we are going.
55 Years of Change
The last anniversary of this sort was in 1955 when the fleet reached 100 million gross tons. But today’s fleet is very different. Of course it has grown tenfold, averaging 4.2% per year, but back in 1955 shipping was also very different. Liners and tramps dominated cargo and the premium cargo was people. Fifty six years and 100,000+ investment decisions later everything has changed. Air liners replaced passenger liners; containerships replaced cargo liners and bulkers replaced tramps. Only tankers survived and they are much bigger.
Investment Roller-Coaster
Although this sounds like neat strategic development, for shipping investors it was a nightmare because the growth path was unbelievably volatile. Business started with a surge of growth - between 1955 and 1975 the growth rate accelerated from 4% to 10.2% as investors queued up to order super-tankers and bulkers, funded by the emerging Eurodollar market. That phase peaked in 1975 and by 1985 growth had slumped to -1%. Then it all started again, with growth surging to 8+% in 2010. Part of this volatility was caused by fluctuations in trade growth which was very fast (8%pa) in the run up to the 1975 peak, then grew by just 1% pa in the 1980s and by around 3% since then. But fleet growth was supercharged by investor’s enthusiasm for playing the market using easy Eurodollar finance.
Productivity Puzzle
One surprising lesson from all this is that, despite the chaotic boom and bust environment, the industry was very successful in delivering the new technology which the globalising world economy needed - a state-of-the-art fleet of tankers, bulk carriers and containerships, all carefully graduated in size to meet the complex needs of the modern trading world for cheap sea transport. Another surprise is that the fleet’s transport “productivity” did not increase very much. In 1955 100m GT transported 820mt of cargo, about 8.2t per GT. Today 1 billion GT delivers around 8.4bn tons of cargo, an average of 8.4t per GT.
A Job Well Done
So there you have it. Shipping cycles are about getting the right ships for the trade, at the cheapest freight rates. After 100,000 angst ridden investment decisions shipping investors have really delivered the goods - a billion tons of ships, tailored to the complex needs of the modern global economy, and super low freight rates. On which note, an extra pat on the back to Capesize owners who are doing such a splendid job today, regardless of cost.
Have a nice day.
Source: Clarksons / Hellenic Shipping
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Sunday, 31 July 11
CAPES ARE TRADING BELOW $ 9500 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The BDI further softened by 4.46 pct and closed at 1264 points which touched below 1300 points after long time. The Cape and Panamax ...
Friday, 29 July 11
5300 ADB COAL WILL BE AT US$ 60/TON IN THIS QUARTER - RAIN
COALspot.com - PT Resource Alam Indonesia Tbk (KKGI) seeing the average selling price of its coal for the third quarter of this year will increase t ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
PTBA'S COAL PRICES UP IN H1 2011
COALspot.com - Bukit Asam’s coal prices in the second half of 2011 will expected to be higher than the first half of this year, said Sukrisno, ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
RESOURCE ALAM 1H PROFIT SURGES 208 PERCENT
Indonesia's tenth largest coal miner in term of concessions, PT Resource Alam Indonesia (KKGI), part of Rain Group, today reported a skyrocket net ...
Thursday, 28 July 11
DRY BULK MARKET EDGES FURTHER DOWN ON ADDED PRESSURE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an indicator of dry bulk freight rates has reached new lows this week, with yesterday’s session ending further dow ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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